5318 Bart Dr · New Baltimore, MI 48064

$55,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $58/sqft · 194% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Land is leased, not owned.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 2.5% in New Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in MI, #597 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $55,061 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.23%
• DSCR: 3.99
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,000
• List price: $55,900
• Delta: 194.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5238 Bud Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	3mo	$19,000	$19	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $46,816
• Equity at exit: $8,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.21×
• Total profit: $112,780
• Equity at exit: $4,833

Cash invested: $15,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48064

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $55,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $916	-5% $896	+0% $877	+5% $858	+10% $838
Rent	-10% $751	-5% $814	+0% $877	+5% $940	+10% $1,003
Rate	-1.0pp $905	-0.5pp $891	base $877	+0.5pp $862	+1.0pp $848

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,975
• Closing costs: $1,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Aloha Ln Casco, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1152	$1,599	$1.39	0d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $55,900 Active 26-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,131
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$1,626
• Taxable income: $10,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,458
• After-tax cash flow: $8,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace light fixtures with energy-efficient LED ones — LED lights are more energy-efficient and can improve the home's curb appeal
• Both Install smart home devices for energy savings and convenience — Smart home devices can improve energy efficiency and add value to the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures with energy-efficient LED ones — LED lights are more energy-efficient and can improve the home's curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home devices for energy savings and convenience — Smart home devices can improve energy efficiency and add value to the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchor Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 2602790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,173
• Composite: 43.85/100
• National rank: #2925
• State rank: #91 of 540 in MI

Livability — New Baltimore

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,996

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 11% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.97%
• Current HPI: 232.1357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B