1303 Wilson Ave · Goshen, IN 46526

$182,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1900 7,971 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $179k · at est. ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with fresh paint and new carpet on the main floor! Enjoy a private backyard, roof is 1 year old (with rubber over the rear addition), and a great location near the high school, hospital, college campuses, and shopping. Just two blocks from the scenic Pumpkin Vine Trail and close to public swimming areas, parks, and tennis courts. Enjoy live music on Saturday nights nearby—like hearing the band at Jesse’s! Cute, clean, and move-in ready. * New water heater *

Key facts

• Private backyard
• New water heater
• Tennis courts

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEW WATER HEATER
• SCENIC PUMPKIN VINE TRAIL
• PUBLIC SWIMMING AREAS
• PARKS
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Goshen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#4 in IN, #622 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+.
• Goshen Community Schools (urban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #190 of 301 in IN (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,603 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,435
• List price: $182,000
• Delta: 1.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1303 Wilson Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (0%)	0mo	$177,000	$161	95
505 Franklin St	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+2%)	1mo	$150,000	$134	78
913 S 10th St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,160 (+6%)	2mo	$134,536	$116	68
902 S 8th St	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,219 (+11%)	1mo	$200,000	$164	62
809 S 6th St	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,226 (+12%)	1mo	$250,000	$204	62
1206 S 12th St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+2%)	9mo	$240,000	$214	59
619 S 8th St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (+3%)	6mo	$142,000	$126	58
819 S 8th St	0.41mi	2/1.0	992 (-10%)	11mo	$173,000	$174	56
721 S 9th St	0.52mi	2/1.5	1,192 (+9%)	6mo	$185,000	$155	54
1412 S 11th St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (+11%)	6mo	$185,000	$152	51
617 S Main St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,220 (+11%)	10mo	$150,000	$123	46
1010 S 15th St	0.71mi	2/1.0	932 (-15%)	8mo	$155,000	$166	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-43,299
• Equity at exit: $27,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-55,372
• Equity at exit: $15,736

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46526

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,101/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $143,596

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1006 S Indiana Ave Goshen, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$1,695	$1.47	21d	1	0.87mi
1401 Park 33 Blvd Goshen, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$1,878	$1.60	21d	20	0.94mi
203 S 6th St Goshen, IN	1.0	1.0	815	$775	$0.95	21d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with fresh paint and new carpet on the main floor! Enjoy a private backyard, roof is 1 year old (with rubber over the rear addition), and a great location near the high school, hospital, college campuses, and shopping. Just two blocks from the scenic Pumpkin Vine Trail and close to public swimming areas, parks, and tennis courts. Enjoy live music on Saturday nights nearby—like hearing the band at Jesse’s! Cute, clean, and move-in ready. * New water heater *

2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with fresh paint and new carpet on the main floor! Enjoy a private backyard, roof is 1 year old (with rubber over the rear addition), and a great location near the high school, hospital, college campuses, and shopping. Just two blocks from the scenic Pumpkin Vine Trail and close to public swimming areas, parks, and tennis courts. Enjoy live music on Saturday nights nearby—like hearing the band at Jesse’s! Cute, clean, and move-in ready. * New water heater *

3. 2026-04-27
   price $182,000 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with fresh paint and new carpet on the main floor! Enjoy a private backyard, roof is 1 year old (with rubber over the rear addition), and a great location near the high school, hospital, college campuses, and shopping. Just two blocks from the scenic Pumpkin Vine Trail and close to public swimming areas, parks, and tennis courts. Enjoy live music on Saturday nights nearby—like hearing the band at Jesse’s! Cute, clean, and move-in ready. * New water heater *

4. 2026-02-05
   listed $187,000 Active 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with fresh paint and new carpet on the main floor! Enjoy a private backyard, roof is 1 year old (with rubber over the rear addition), and a great location near the high school, hospital, college campuses, and shopping. Just two blocks from the scenic Pumpkin Vine Trail and close to public swimming areas, parks, and tennis courts. Enjoy live music on Saturday nights nearby—like hearing the band at Jesse’s! Cute, clean, and move-in ready. * New water heater *

5. 2025-07-30
   price $187,000
6. 2025-07-14
   price $197,000
7. 2025-07-10
   listed $217,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$3,101
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable loss: −$5,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goshen Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803930
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,892
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6292
• State rank: #190 of 301 in IN

Livability — Goshen

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #622

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goshen, IN
• County: Elkhart County · 107,928 people
• City population: 33,668
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,668
• Household income: $67,461
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 934.0

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.57%
• Current HPI: 221.643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $182,000 IRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $187,000 IRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $187,000 IRMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $197,000 IRMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $217,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,101 · +90.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.