7834 Golden Rubia Ln · Sienna, TX 77583

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,297 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,732 sqft lot $193/sqft · at area comps Est $262k · at est. $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7834 Golden Rubia Lane, located in the sought-after Caldwell Ranch community in Rosharon. Built in 2022, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,300 square feet of modern living with quality finishes throughout. The open-concept layout is complemented by quartz countertops, a tankless water heater, and a bright, inviting interior that feels both functional and refined. The kitchen comes fully equipped with refrigerator. washer, and dryer included making this home truly move-in ready. Additional features include a full water softener system and a sprinkler system for the front and backyard, adding everyday convenience. Residents enjoy access to well-m

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Community pool
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• CALDWELL RANCH COMMUNITY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• FULL WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee of $850; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living for main rooms)
• Construction: Built in 2022; Brick and stucco construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Energy Star qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $216,323 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,581
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -4.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7726 Golden Rubia Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	2mo	$245,000	$189	93
711 Boer Plains Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	10mo	$254,900	$197	86
726 Hearth Manor Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	12mo	$254,500	$196	84
718 Silver Kettle Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	13mo	$255,000	$197	83
706 Zinnia Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+3%)	3mo	$234,999	$176	82
8038 Molasses Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+0%)	7mo	$245,000	$188	81
8303 Amaryllis Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-2%)	7mo	$204,900	$161	70
8218 Radial Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$196	66
8223 Radial Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	13mo	$229,900	$192	57
8015 Milam Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	6mo	$260,000	$185	55
8018 Buck Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	6mo	$269,990	$192	52
8302 Tartan Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+15%)	13mo	$239,900	$161	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-58,333
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-88,537
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$565 /mo · $6,779/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $216,323

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	0.43mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	44d	1	0.65mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	22d	1	0.67mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	13d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Pending 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-04-30
    historical
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $250,000 Active 1002-char remark
12. 2026-03-25
    listed $260,000 Active
13. 2025-07-11
    historical $2,100
14. 2025-07-08
    listed $2,100
15. 2025-06-30
    historical $2,100
16. 2025-06-11
    listed $2,100
17. 2024-06-09
    historical $2,100
18. 2024-04-14
    listed $2,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,779 · $565/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,779 · $565/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,779
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in the Caldwell Ranch community is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value
• Both Upgrade windows — Modern windows can improve energy efficiency and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Upgrade windows — Modern windows can improve energy efficiency and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11804.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-06-09 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-04-14 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,779 · +96.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.