3111 West Creek Club Drive Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$250,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1977 8,026 sqft lot $105/sqft · 23% below area Est $326k · 23% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

Key facts

• 8,026 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,035 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,810
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -23.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3514 W Creek Club Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,329 (-2%)	3mo	$275,000	$118	76
3606 Ridgeview Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (-0%)	2mo	$419,999	$177	68
2719 E Pebble Beach Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,239 (-6%)	1mo	$349,900	$156	67
3010 Apple Valley Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,492 (+5%)	1mo	$375,000	$150	62
3502 Rolling Green Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,447 (+3%)	1mo	$363,000	$148	62
3439 Oyster Cove Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,042 (-14%)	1mo	$309,000	$151	59
3043 Bonney Briar Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (-7%)	1mo	$309,900	$140	55
2823 W Pebble Beach Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,691 (+13%)	3mo	$415,000	$154	54
3119 Millbrook Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,269 (-4%)	2mo	$299,900	$132	54
3415 Palm Desert Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,568 (+8%)	2mo	$329,900	$128	48
2935 Oak Pointe Blvd	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,684 (+13%)	0mo	$439,900	$164	41
2607 E Pebble Beach Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,726 (+15%)	1mo	$399,999	$147	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,900
• Equity at exit: $52,432

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,907
• Equity at exit: $48,565

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,561/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $234,035

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	12d	1	0.32mi
3512 Talia Wood Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$2,900	$0.98	10d	1	0.44mi
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	19d	1	0.47mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	0.80mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	24d	1	0.91mi
2608 Grand Plantation Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	12d	1	0.92mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	17d	1	1.04mi
4340 Lake Walk Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	1.14mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	17d	1	1.16mi
6518 Portuguese Bend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$6,500	$2.23	43d	1	1.21mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	43d	1	1.36mi
2828 Lake Colony Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2494	$2,300	$0.92	12d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $250,000 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

4. 2026-04-28
   status Active 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

5. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

6. 2026-04-20
   price $230,000 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

7. 2026-04-10
   listed $330,000 Active 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Extreme drop in price. My clients were ready to take an investor price so listed that way for the public. Don't miss this amazing 4/5 bedroom 2.5 bath on the golf course. Priced way under appraisal value. Selling AS IS. Bring all offers.

8. 2026-04-09
   historical
9. 2026-01-16
   price $385,000
10. 2025-12-01
    listed $410,000 Active
11. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus
12. 2010-12-24
    historical
13. 2010-08-31
    listed $175,000
14. 2010-08-31
    historical
15. 2010-06-28
    listed $184,900
16. 2008-05-30
    soldstatus
17. 2007-11-07
    historical
18. 2007-07-05
    listed $149,777
19. 1997-04-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,561 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,561 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 38% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,561
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-08-31 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2010-06-28 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2008-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-07-05 Listed $149,777 HARMLS
• 1997-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,561 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.