446 Spring Dr · Stanardsville, VA 22973

$275,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1971 9.25 ac lot $273/sqft · 6% below area Est $294k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Mountain Retreat on 9.25 Acres within a stones throw from Rapidan Wildlife Management land and the Shenandoah National Park! This cabin has been loved by this owner and family a very long time, and is used as a full time residence. This property has mountain views, very established flower gardens and fish pond are just some of the highlights outdoors. It is on a dead end drive, so privacy, comfort and seclusion is at it's best here! Inside there are 4 possible bedrooms, a laundry room, bathroom, living room and eat in kitchen. Decks all around, even off of the Master Bedroom! Lots of windows to let the fresh mountain air in. Community Pond. 4 wheel drive, AWD or FWD vehicle wit

Key facts

• 9.25 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone; Additional parcels included: two parcels (6.15 acres and 3.10 acres) being sold together

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Gravity septic field; Propane for hot water; Propane utility; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade finished area recorded by assessor
• Construction: Cedar construction; Shingle and metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Building not winterized; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Mountainous lot; Secluded setting; Trees/wooded

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range - Gas; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level; 2 bedrooms on 1st upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Wood burning stove; Other heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Window cooling units (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet; Ceiling fan(s); Family room off kitchen; Floor plan - Traditional; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Wood stove; Wood floors; Entry-level bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer in unit; Dryer in unit; Washer on main floor; Dryer on main floor; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.8% in Stanardsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#243 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A-, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,340 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,746
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -6.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Mae Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+11%)	22mo	$325,000	$290	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,068
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,550
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22973

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $251,794

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $275,000 Active 754-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,410/yr (+$117/mo · 166.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,569
• After-tax cash flow: $-7/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanardsville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #8223

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,980

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.51%
• Current HPI: 181.8265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $845 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.