929 Pepperidge Ct · Lancaster, TX 75134

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $239k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLING AS-IS. NEW AC UNIT INSIDE AND OUT REPLACED 2 YEARS OLD. MAKE AN OFFER!

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Built 1979
• Listed 35 days

Tags

• NEW AC UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional amenities provided
• Financial info: No financial or investor-specific information provided
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Built in 1979; Single-family property (specific stories and entry level not provided); Living area approximately 1438
• Construction: Construction materials and roof details not provided; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Located in the Lancaster North subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen details provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Bathroom information not provided
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: No interior feature details available
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.8% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#926 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 102 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,708
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Pepperidge Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+3%)	1mo	$234,900	$159	93
2742 E Pepperidge Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-3%)	2mo	$230,000	$165	89
921 Brookhaven Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+1%)	4mo	$250,000	$172	88
2822 Pebble Beach Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+2%)	0mo	$274,900	$188	83
2933 Lawndale Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	4mo	$234,900	$166	81
1116 Cresthaven Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-4%)	5mo	$278,000	$201	79
825 Cherry Hills Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (-0%)	9mo	$220,000	$154	78
2654 Princeton Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (+1%)	4mo	$205,000	$141	78
879 W Wintergreen Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-4%)	9mo	$250,000	$181	75
922 W Wintergreen Rd	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,416 (-2%)	8mo	$280,000	$198	70
2421 Suffolk Ln	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,485 (+3%)	5mo	$160,000	$108	58
919 Cresthaven Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+12%)	11mo	$265,000	$165	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,642
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,857
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75134

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,097/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2746 Town North Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1377	$2,000	$1.45	7d	1	0.07mi
834 Apple Valley Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,275	$1.60	44d	1	0.16mi
2922 E Pepperidge Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.24mi
2654 Hartford Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1657	$2,015	$1.22	44d	1	0.28mi
719 Westover Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,900	$1.52	24d	1	0.30mi
1252 Payne Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$2,239	$1.42	3d	1	0.30mi
907 Cresthaven Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,850	$1.35	24d	1	0.34mi
2617 Arcady Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	21d	1	0.35mi
2617 Arcady Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.35mi
833 Stanford Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,725	$1.71	44d	1	0.39mi
1021 Badger Run Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,235	$1.23	44d	1	0.69mi
1533 Prescott Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	4d	1	0.69mi
1532 Linda Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	24d	1	0.74mi
2912 Crimson Clover Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,075	$1.20	7d	1	0.78mi
721 Lindenwood Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,895	$1.18	15d	1	0.79mi
721 Lindenwood Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,895	$1.18	7d	1	0.79mi
1244 Flower Ridge Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,099	$1.15	44d	1	0.83mi
1811 Kings Cross Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	24d	1	0.91mi
1326 Johns Ave Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1236	$2,100	$1.70	44d	1	0.96mi
3124 Crimson Clover Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,100	$1.18	44d	1	0.97mi
1447 Gentle Rain Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,200	$1.27	7d	1	1.05mi
1255 W Pleasant Run Rd Lancaster, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,450	$1.81	7d	10	1.05mi
509 Arbor Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,875	$1.26	44d	1	1.07mi
1555 Willowbrook St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,759	$1.14	22d	1	1.21mi
1748 Cansler Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,195	$1.22	44d	1	1.22mi
1750 Oneal St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,100	$1.44	44d	1	1.25mi
2217 Midbury Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,150	$1.34	17d	1	1.32mi
1424 Chapman Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,099	$1.15	24d	1	1.37mi
1125 Greenbriar Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1744	$1,825	$1.05	7d	1	1.45mi
120 E Park Place Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	1.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	24d	1	1.47mi
1861 Serena Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,350	$1.36	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $180,000 Active 78-char remark
15. 1980-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,097 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,097 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,097
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #16461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 44,142
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,045
• Household income: $69,778
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.51%
• Current HPI: 323.4396
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $180,000 FSBO.com
• 1980-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,097 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.