111 Grober St · Paris, AR 72855

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1970 0.29 ac lot Est $116k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming two-bedroom, one-bath home conveniently located close to town. This home features beautiful wood floors, tall ceilings, and plenty of natural light throughout. Relax on the screened-in front porch with a swing or enjoy the peaceful back patio perfect for entertaining or unwinding. Updated HVAC system installed in 2021, and a durable metal roof add value and peace of mind. A great blend of character that is perfect for a starter home, downsizing or investment property.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Nearby parks
• Nearby shopping

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEARBY SHOPPING
• NEARBY SCHOOLS
• NEARBY PARKS
• LOW MAINTENANCE DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($951 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#68 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris School District (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 238 in AR (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paris Elementary School (math 57% / reading 27%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 431 students, 100% FRL); Paris Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #83 of 201 statewide, top 44%, 317 students, 100% FRL); Paris High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #92 of 292 statewide, top 37%, 335 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $90k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Grober St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,088 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$78	99
210 E Brown St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+3%)	2mo	$85,500	$76	66
1116 S Vine St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,148 (+6%)	12mo	$12,500	$11	65
804 E Academy St	0.52mi	2/1.0	974 (-10%)	1mo	$114,000	$117	57
513 4th St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (-5%)	3mo	$120,000	$116	54
203 E Brown St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (+3%)	13mo	$135,000	$120	52
614 N 7th St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,039 (-4%)	13mo	$120,000	$115	51
519 S 10th St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,004 (-8%)	10mo	$62,000	$62	51
714 E Academy St	0.50mi	2/1.0	980 (-10%)	12mo	$105,000	$107	50
1205 Crescent Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,161 (+7%)	6mo	$30,000	$26	47
1406 W Walnut St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	10mo	$145,000	$121	38
817 E Chism St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,232 (+13%)	15mo	$57,400	$47	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,192
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $13,976
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72855

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $90,000
3. 2026-01-11
   price $99,900
4. 2025-10-07
   listed $110,000 Active
5. 1998-11-09
   soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$913
• − Management: −$913
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$219
• After-tax cash flow: $2,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris School District
• NCES district ID: 0511130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,950
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5763
• State rank: #83 of 238 in AR

Livability — Paris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #8544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,462

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,046 people
• By 2030: 20,537 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,443 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 18,220 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 16,164 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 14,858 · -29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 17.8% · R 80.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.40%
• Current HPI: 170.513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+76.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WRVBOR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $90,000 WRVBOR
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $99,900 WRVBOR
• 2025-10-07 Listed $110,000 WRVBOR
• 1998-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $567 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.