10225 Kirchherr Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 2024 1.40 ac lot $171/sqft · 16% below area Est $307k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful partially wooded 1.4 acre property with an almost new ScotBilt manufactured home (2024). Features include kitchen island, walk in pantry with upgraded storage features, separate utility room with additional storage, split floorplan, drywall finish in main rooms, wood look high end flooring throughout (no carpet), and owner installed an unpermitted deck and pergola off the rear entry and a fire pit area in the front yard. Property currently has a 20' diameter glamping tent that is personal property but negotiable.

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Kitchen island
• Great room design

Tags

• 1.4 ACRE PROPERTY
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• GREAT ROOM DESIGN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WELL DESIGNED PANTRY ROOM
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Exterior features: 1.4-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Flagler Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Woods Elementary School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 689 students, 66% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,925 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,646
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -15.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4350 Wanda St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	1mo	$209,000	$161	54
9945 Light Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	5mo	$120,000	$89	44
4710 Ursula St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	9mo	$215,000	$166	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $130,262
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $391,796
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $229,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-95	+0% $-168	+5% $-241	+10% $-314
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-238	+0% $-168	+5% $-98	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-102	base $-168	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $259,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $259,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    price $259,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    price $269,000 431-char remark
13. 2026-04-21
    listed $275,000 Active 431-char remark
14. 2026-04-09
    historical 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Wonderful partially wooded 1.4 acre property with an almost new ScotBilt manufactured home (2024). Features include kitchen island, walk in pantry with upgraded storage features, separate utility room with additional storage, split floorplan, drywall finish in main rooms, wood look high end flooring throughout (no carpet), and owner installed an unpermitted deck and pergola off the rear entry and a fire pit area in the front yard. Property currently has a 20' diameter glamping tent that is personal property but negotiable.

15. 2026-04-03
    listed $275,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Wonderful partially wooded 1.4 acre property with an almost new ScotBilt manufactured home (2024). Features include kitchen island, walk in pantry with upgraded storage features, separate utility room with additional storage, split floorplan, drywall finish in main rooms, wood look high end flooring throughout (no carpet), and owner installed an unpermitted deck and pergola off the rear entry and a fire pit area in the front yard. Property currently has a 20' diameter glamping tent that is personal property but negotiable.

16. 2024-12-09
    soldstatus $259,000
17. 2024-12-05
    soldstatus $259,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    This brand new ScotBilt home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and sits on 1.4 acres in beautiful Flagler Estates with no HOA! The living area opens up to a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a large island, pantry closet, and a dedicated dining nook to the left. The primary suite features a private bathroom with a double-sink vanity, large tub & separate shower! The two additional bedrooms include share a nice bathroom with shower-tub combo. Step into this move-in ready home with plenty of potential on this oversized lot!

18. 2024-11-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    This brand new ScotBilt home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and sits on 1.4 acres in beautiful Flagler Estates with no HOA! The living area opens up to a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a large island, pantry closet, and a dedicated dining nook to the left. The primary suite features a private bathroom with a double-sink vanity, large tub & separate shower! The two additional bedrooms include share a nice bathroom with shower-tub combo. Step into this move-in ready home with plenty of potential on this oversized lot!

19. 2024-11-11
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    This brand new ScotBilt home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and sits on 1.4 acres in beautiful Flagler Estates with no HOA! The living area opens up to a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a large island, pantry closet, and a dedicated dining nook to the left. The primary suite features a private bathroom with a double-sink vanity, large tub & separate shower! The two additional bedrooms include share a nice bathroom with shower-tub combo. Step into this move-in ready home with plenty of potential on this oversized lot!

20. 2024-11-07
    historical

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    This brand new ScotBilt home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and sits on 1.4 acres in beautiful Flagler Estates with no HOA! The living area opens up to a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a large island, pantry closet, and a dedicated dining nook to the left. The primary suite features a private bathroom with a double-sink vanity, large tub & separate shower! The two additional bedrooms include share a nice bathroom with shower-tub combo. Step into this move-in ready home with plenty of potential on this oversized lot!

21. 2024-10-16
    listed $264,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    This brand new ScotBilt home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and sits on 1.4 acres in beautiful Flagler Estates with no HOA! The living area opens up to a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a large island, pantry closet, and a dedicated dining nook to the left. The primary suite features a private bathroom with a double-sink vanity, large tub & separate shower! The two additional bedrooms include share a nice bathroom with shower-tub combo. Step into this move-in ready home with plenty of potential on this oversized lot!

22. 2024-01-11
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $40,000
24. 2000-05-03
    soldstatus $15,000
25. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 66.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$6,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $-408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2490.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $259,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $269,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $275,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $275,000 realMLS
• 2024-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-05 Sold (MLS) $259,000 realMLS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-11-11 Relisted — realMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-10-16 Listed $264,900 realMLS
• 2024-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,288 · +100.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.