2650 W Union Hills Dr #295 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$44,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 2016 Good condition Est $37k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* MOTIVATED SELLER * for this beautifully updated move-in ready home! This must-see 2-bed, 2-bath home in a 55+ community. Recent improvements include luxury vinyl flooring, ceiling fans, and a new kitchen sink and faucet (2021), plus a new dishwasher, new disposal, updated interior paint and exterior paint (2026). The A/C is regularly serviced, and the home features a handicap-accessible front ramp, new porch steps, and dual walk-in closets. You'll love the spacious living room, entertainer's kitchen, large carport entry, and side porch, along with a storage shed for extra space. Enjoy everything Friendly Village of Orangewood has to offer, including a welcoming clubhouse and a refreshin

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• New porch steps
• Storage shed

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• HANDICAP-ACCESSIBLE FRONT RAMP
• NEW PORCH STEPS
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ENTERTAINER'S KITCHEN
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From I17 take Union Hills W, turn right onto N Village Pkwy then enter Friendly Village of Orangewood and follow signs to #295
• HOA & community: Land lease community; Land lease $982 monthly; No association fees included

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Private maintained road; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Biking/walking path; Community laundry; Golf and gated community amenities

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Breakfast bar; Full bath in primary bedroom; Accessible approach with ramp; Multiple entries/exits

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.01%
• DSCR: 4.47
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,660
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #263	0.08mi	2/2.0	780 (0%)	17mo	$38,000	$49	82
2650 W Union Hills Dr #271	0.08mi	2/1.0	744 (-5%)	14mo	$18,922	$25	73
2650 W Union Hills Dr #50	0.09mi	2/2.0	868 (+11%)	7mo	$40,500	$47	71
2650 W Union Hills Dr #323	0.08mi	2/2.0	720 (-8%)	15mo	$32,000	$44	71
2650 W Union Hills Dr #22	0.08mi	2/2.0	720 (-8%)	19mo	$52,000	$72	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #29	0.08mi	2/2.0	896 (+15%)	8mo	$42,500	$47	65
2650 W Union Hills Dr #245	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (+8%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	62
2650 W Union Hills Dr #329	0.08mi	2/2.0	896 (+15%)	14mo	$72,000	$80	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $40,617
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $86,318
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,051	$1.75	24d	1	0.28mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	18d	2	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	2d	17	0.46mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	1d	80	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	2d	19	0.58mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	7d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	7d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	15d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	16d	1	0.79mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	0.82mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	43d	1	0.82mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	1d	69	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	43d	1	0.85mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	21d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	43d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	23d	1	0.96mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	1d	32	1.11mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	1d	2	1.12mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	749	$1,135	$1.52	2d	2	1.12mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	3d	14	1.13mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	24d	1	1.16mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	2d	14	1.19mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	1d	34	1.21mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	2d	20	1.25mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	43d	1	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	24d	2	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	12d	2	1.32mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	2d	1	1.33mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.33mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	24d	1	1.33mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	24d	1	1.34mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	18d	2	1.34mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	43d	1	1.37mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	21d	1	1.42mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	1d	40	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $44,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $9,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,320
• After-tax cash flow: $7,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home has been beautifully updated with new flooring, paint, and appliances, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both exterior paint — enhances home's appearance and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both exterior paint — enhances home's appearance and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $49,900 ARMLS