2971 Bounty Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$384,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1980 3,833 sqft lot Est $452k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Direct access to Bay, Sound, Gulf. Dining room, living room, kitchen open. 8000 lb aluminum lift w/ remote, single pole lift, refurbished two level wood dock, large utility/storage/work room. Clam shell awnings and hurricane panels, lots of storage, six ceiling fans, laminate flooring, bathrooms remodeled, two screen enclosed porches/one with vinyl windows, outdoor security lights, vertical blinds, furnished/turn key, large freezer, 2 refrigerator/freezer, 2 walk in closets, flat screen TV, smoke detectors, no grass to cut

Key facts

• Concrete seawall
• Gulf access
• 000 lb boat lift

Tags

• GULF ACCESS
• QUIET CANAL
• 10
• 000 LB BOAT LIFT
• CONCRETE SEAWALL
• DOCK READY FOR FISHING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee listed; Community boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Paved parking; Attached carport; Two parking spaces (1 covered)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Entry at level 1; Faces east; Resale property; Has view
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage; Manual shutters; West exposure; Canal access with seawall; Rectangular lot; Paved public road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Family/Dining room; Kitchen island; Living/Dining room; Separate shower; Shower only; Bar; Window treatments; Single-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $385k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $385k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.41%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $451,587
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2970 Sloop Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,374 (-0%)	22mo	$449,900	$327	72
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+10%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-35,457
• Equity at exit: $57,390

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $4,496
• Equity at exit: $33,279

Cash invested: $107,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,018
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,419/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,764

Max offer price $384,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,225
• Closing costs: $11,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.12mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	23d	1	0.14mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	23d	1	0.34mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	23d	1	0.35mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	23d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $384,900 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,900 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $384,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $389,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-04-22
    price $389,900
12. 2026-03-04
    price $399,900
13. 2026-02-13
    price $409,900
14. 2026-01-24
    listed $419,900 Active
15. 2019-06-06
    soldstatus $190,000
16. 2019-06-03
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Direct access to Bay, Sound, Gulf. Dining room, living room, kitchen open. 8000 lb aluminum lift w/ remote, single pole lift, refurbished two level wood dock, large utility/storage/work room. Clam shell awnings and hurricane panels, lots of storage, six ceiling fans, laminate flooring, bathrooms remodeled, two screen enclosed porches/one with vinyl windows, outdoor security lights, vertical blinds, furnished/turn key, large freezer, 2 refrigerator/freezer, 2 walk in closets, flat screen TV, smoke detectors, no grass to cut

17. 2019-04-22
    listed $205,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Direct access to Bay, Sound, Gulf. Dining room, living room, kitchen open. 8000 lb aluminum lift w/ remote, single pole lift, refurbished two level wood dock, large utility/storage/work room. Clam shell awnings and hurricane panels, lots of storage, six ceiling fans, laminate flooring, bathrooms remodeled, two screen enclosed porches/one with vinyl windows, outdoor security lights, vertical blinds, furnished/turn key, large freezer, 2 refrigerator/freezer, 2 walk in closets, flat screen TV, smoke detectors, no grass to cut

18. 1994-08-01
    soldstatus $72,500
19. 1981-05-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,419 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,419 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,560
• − Property taxes: −$4,419
• − Insurance: −$7,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,122
• − Management: −$4,122
• − Depreciation: −$11,197
• Taxable loss: −$937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $5,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2193.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $389,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $399,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $409,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $419,900 FORTMLS
• 2019-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-03 Sold (MLS) $190,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-04-22 Listed $205,900 NAPLESMLS
• 1994-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1981-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,419 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.