9725 Channel Dr NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$490,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2007 10,397 sqft lot Est $551k · 11% under $127/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Carlyon Beach! This updated 1,710 SF rambler offers 3 BR, 2 BA, and an easy one-level floorplan with a 2-car attached garage. Fresh interior paint, new flooring, new refrigerator, new range, and new toilets help make this home move-in ready. Enjoy comfortable living spaces, a practical layout, and the relaxed feel of a waterfront community without the waterfront price. Carlyon Beach HOA amenities include a clubhouse, community dock, marina, boat launch, waterfront park, kayak racks, community garden, kids’ park, and dog park. The community waterfront park offers beach access, play areas, basketball court, horseshoe pits, picnic-style gathering space, and a covered Wanigan w

Key facts

• Dog park
• Waterfront park
• Boat launch

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• BOAT LAUNCH
• WATERFRONT PARK
• COMMUNITY GARDEN
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, State Bond, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $127 covering common area and road maintenance; Community amenities include boat launch, clubhouse, park, playground; CCRs apply; Community waterfront/private beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (has garage); 2 covered spaces; 2 uncovered parking spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Electric power; Community water (managed by CBHOA); Sewer connected (CBHOA); Cable (Comcast); Internet (XFinity)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Main level entry; East-facing
• Construction: Built on lot; Standard frame construction; Cement plank exterior; Composition roof; Concrete ribbon foundation; House structure
• Exterior features: Cement plank siding; Patio; Paved lot; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level) with tubs and showers
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; French doors; Vaulted ceilings; Electric water heater (located in garage)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Griffin School (577 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($483k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $265,553 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.74%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $550,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9733 Whitecap Dr NW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-0%)	16mo	$465,000	$273	83
9910 Whitecap Dr NW	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-4%)	14mo	$483,000	$293	76
9828 Channel Dr NW	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,871 (+9%)	2mo	$492,000	$263	75
10139 Windward Dr NW	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-1%)	7mo	$695,000	$412	73
9832 Whitecap Dr NW	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,545 (-10%)	2mo	$510,000	$330	73
9800 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-14%)	5mo	$496,500	$338	68
9722 Overlook Dr NW	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,936 (+13%)	6mo	$430,000	$222	67
9806 Lookout Dr NW	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+6%)	4mo	$510,000	$282	66
10017 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+10%)	8mo	$938,000	$499	58
2216 Westwind Dr NW	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-13%)	12mo	$479,500	$322	50
2232 Westwind Dr NW	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-14%)	16mo	$455,000	$311	45
9120 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-6%)	12mo	$524,900	$325	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $196,329
• Equity at exit: $441,431

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $634,652
• Equity at exit: $951,962

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,723/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-1,113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,065

Max offer price $293,354

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,500
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10019 Mariner Dr NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,995	$1.84	43d	1	0.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $490,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $490,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $490,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $490,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $490,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $490,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $490,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $490,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $490,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $490,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $490,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $490,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $490,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $490,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $490,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $490,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,723 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,802 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,079/yr (+$90/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,448
• − Property taxes: −$3,723
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$14,255
• Taxable loss: −$22,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,432
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $490,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,723 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.