1815 Mary St · Houston, TX 77026

$149,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1921 6,250 sqft lot $173/sqft · 24% below area Est $197k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older bungalow in need of repairs. Value mostly in the lot. Great potential for new construction. Located just off recently paved Lorraine. Close to downtown area and easy access to Elysian.

Key facts

• New construction
• Bungalow
• Close to downtown

Tags

• BUNGALOW
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• EASY ACCESS TO ELYSIAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sherman El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 528 students, 99% FRL); Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,045 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,499
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -24.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3208 Sumpter St	0.59mi	2/1.0	799 (-8%)	2mo	$147,000	$184	59
2112 Des Chaumes St	0.57mi	2/2.5	955 (+10%)	2mo	$239,900	$251	49
2116 Des Chaumes St	0.57mi	2/2.5	955 (+10%)	5mo	$240,000	$251	46
2007 Cochran St	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	984 (+14%)	4mo	$175,000	$178	42
1505 Ryon St	0.63mi	2/1.0	780 (-10%)	16mo	$160,000	$205	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $31,787
• Equity at exit: $74,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $95,988
• Equity at exit: $121,705

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,477/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $143	+0% $100	+5% $58	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $38	+0% $100	+5% $162	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $138	base $100	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	0.07mi
1519 McKee St Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	17d	1	0.37mi
1556 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	905	$1,505	$1.66	45d	1	0.41mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	3d	19	0.47mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	26d	1	0.51mi
2209 Gano St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	45d	1	0.55mi
2209 Gano St Unit 4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	0.55mi
1550 Burnett St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,108	$2.40	1d	36	0.55mi
1611 Common St Unit 3 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	558	$1,300	$2.33	45d	1	0.56mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	0d	15	0.59mi
913 McKee St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	714	$1,003	$1.40	45d	1	0.70mi
1514 Everett St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	970	$1,840	$1.90	21d	1	0.74mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	45d	1	0.80mi
711 William St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	20d	1	0.84mi
3019 Florida St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	45d	1	0.85mi
650 McKee St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$991	$1.52	14d	1	0.85mi
650 McKee St Apt 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,002	$1.54	9d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	9d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,725	$1.79	0d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 687 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,715	$1.78	45d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 671 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,037	$1.60	16d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Apt 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,674	$1.73	1d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 671 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,041	$1.60	13d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,002	$1.54	7d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,714	$1.77	13d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 701 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,032	$1.59	45d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,042	$1.60	0d	1	0.86mi
650 McKee St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	7d	1	0.86mi
1205 Morris St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	610	$1,095	$1.80	45d	1	0.87mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,008	$2.02	0d	40	0.88mi
1725 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$2,263	$2.29	45d	1	0.88mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	45d	1	0.91mi
2316 Freeman St Unit 3 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$985	$1.31	9d	1	1.01mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$2,713	$2.80	0d	67	1.03mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	22d	16	1.03mi
2310 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	997	$1,687	$1.69	45d	1	1.03mi
2316 N Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	696	$1,515	$2.18	45d	1	1.04mi
2810 Riverby Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,950	$2.82	5d	1	1.08mi
6 N Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	763	$1,851	$2.43	26d	1	1.09mi
200 Hogan St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,904	$1.80	14d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,500 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $149,500 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-03-14
    listed $165,000 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Older bungalow in need of repairs. Value mostly in the lot. Great potential for new construction. Located just off recently paved Lorraine. Close to downtown area and easy access to Elysian.

14. 2024-05-15
    soldstatus
15. 2000-03-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$3,477
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$1,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,477 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.