94 Connelly Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,480 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1927 4,352 sqft lot Est $198k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this spacious 3/2 double offering flexibility for both an owner-occupant or investor. This property features character and functionality throughout with some natural woodwork, hardwood floors, and formal dining rooms that add charm and a welcoming feel. The spacious, open layouts provide comfortable living areas with plenty of room to entertain or relax. The lower unit offers three large bedrooms, ample closet space, and a bright, inviting sunroom that adds additional living space and versatility. The upper unit features an updated kitchen, newer flooring, and neutral interiors, creating a clean and move-in-ready atmosphere. Additional improvements and features inclu

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Open layouts
• Sunroom

Tags

• NATURAL WOODWORK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FORMAL DINING ROOMS
• OPEN LAYOUTS
• SUNROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is resale
• Financial info: Owner pays water; rent includes water (where applicable); Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage; Paved parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story building; Existing construction
• Construction: Composite siding; See remarks for additional construction details
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 34 x 128

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varied flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,794/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.64%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Ruspin Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,351 (-5%)	2mo	$307,000	$131	81
586 Wyoming Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,379 (-4%)	1mo	$148,000	$62	69
35 Erskine Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,135 (-14%)	4mo	$170,000	$80	66
495 Norfolk Ave	0.24mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,254 (-9%)	11mo	$295,000	$131	59
44 Freeman St	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,182 (-12%)	9mo	$144,000	$66	53
128 Arden Ave	0.39mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,173 (-12%)	9mo	$165,000	$76	49
18 Phyllis Ave	0.43mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,134 (-14%)	8mo	$138,000	$65	45
49 Suffolk St	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,184 (-12%)	16mo	$205,000	$94	45
96 Sussex St	0.57mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,152 (-13%)	4mo	$255,000	$118	44
208 Davidson Ave	0.70mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,199 (-11%)	8mo	$170,000	$77	37
1372 E Delavan Ave	0.65mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,296 (-7%)	15mo	$145,000	$63	36
237 Davidson Ave	0.71mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,199 (-11%)	18mo	$271,000	$123	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $61,883
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $152,592
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,794 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$797
• Net cashflow: $1,616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,754	-5% $1,685	+0% $1,616	+5% $1,547	+10% $1,478
Rent	-10% $1,316	-5% $1,466	+0% $1,616	+5% $1,766	+10% $1,916
Rate	-1.0pp $1,716	-0.5pp $1,667	base $1,616	+0.5pp $1,564	+1.0pp $1,511

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,590
1× unit	2	1	$1,204
Total (3 units)			$3,794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	15d	1	0.50mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	2d	1	1.22mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	2d	10	1.25mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	15d	1	1.26mi
59 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2521	$1,250	$0.50	24d	1	1.37mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,642
• − Management: −$3,642
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $17,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,136
• After-tax cash flow: $15,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.