130 Gallant Fox · Castroville, TX 78009

$510,766

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,007 sqft · Other public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2024 6,054 sqft lot $254/sqft · 14% above area Est $590k · 13% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, designed for both comfort and style. Enjoy an open layout with sleek stainless-steel appliances, a versatile upstairs game room, and all bedrooms conveniently located downstairs. Step outside to a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a 2-car garage for added convenience and storage. This gated neighborhood offers the charm of peaceful country living while keeping you just minutes from premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and major employment centers. Medina Valley ISD

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $511k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (53.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (61.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (61.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $195,382 (61.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.01%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 21.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $589,804
• List price: $510,766
• Delta: -13.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-181,783
• Equity at exit: $76,157

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.00×
• Total profit: $-286,453
• Equity at exit: $44,162

Cash invested: $143,014 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 21.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,679
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,681/yr
• Insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-1,551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,917

Max offer price $236,790

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,262	-5% $-1,406	+0% $-1,551	+5% $-1,695	+10% $-1,840
Rent	-10% $-1,705	-5% $-1,628	+0% $-1,551	+5% $-1,474	+10% $-1,397
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,294	-0.5pp $-1,421	base $-1,551	+0.5pp $-1,683	+1.0pp $-1,818

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,692
• Closing costs: $15,323
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	45d	1	0.69mi
186 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,650	$0.98	25d	1	1.40mi
210 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1487	$1,595	$1.07	45d	1	1.40mi
153 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,595	$1.07	25d	1	1.43mi
197 Nespral Dr Unit 197 Nespral San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,595	$0.95	6d	1	1.44mi
209 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,595	$1.07	25d	1	1.44mi
255 Nespral Dr Unit 259 San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1640	$2,050	$1.25	45d	1	1.45mi
339 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,595	$1.07	6d	1	1.47mi
339 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,595	$1.07	12d	1	1.47mi
335 Nespral Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,595	$1.07	25d	1	1.48mi
345 Nespral Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,595	$1.07	6d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $510,766 Price Change 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $540,888 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $540,888 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $540,888 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $540,888 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $540,888 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $540,888 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $540,888 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $540,888 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $540,888 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $540,888 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $540,888 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $540,888 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $540,888 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $540,888 New 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This stunning home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, designed for both comfort and style. Enjoy an open layout with sleek stainless-steel appliances, a versatile upstairs game room, and all bedrooms conveniently located downstairs. Step outside to a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a 2-car garage for added convenience and storage. This gated neighborhood offers the charm of peaceful country living while keeping you just minutes from premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and major employment centers. Medina Valley ISD

16. 2026-03-11
    historical
17. 2025-05-28
    price $540,088
18. 2025-05-17
    listed $540,061 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,347 · $779/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,666/yr (+$639/mo · 456.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,611
• − Property taxes: −$1,681
• − Insurance: −$2,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$14,859
• Taxable loss: −$28,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,904
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $540,888 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $540,088 LERA
• 2025-05-17 Listed $540,061 LERA

Property tax history

+182.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,681 · +360.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.