1843 Murrah Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$443,007

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,894 sqft · Land · 167 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $153/sqft · 17% below area Est $531k · 17% under $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $443k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $310,917 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $530,888
• List price: $443,007
• Delta: -16.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-100,958
• Equity at exit: $66,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-138,808
• Equity at exit: $38,303

Cash invested: $124,042 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,164/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,590

Max offer price $375,846

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,752
• Closing costs: $13,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.90mi
1869 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,499	$1.52	13d	1	0.93mi
1874 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2212	$3,099	$1.40	19d	1	0.94mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	7d	1	0.97mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	7d	1	1.05mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	44d	1	1.05mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	44d	1	1.06mi
1836 Big Spring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$2,900	$1.08	44d	1	1.15mi
1284 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2982	$3,300	$1.11	24d	1	1.22mi
1273 Palmetto Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3370	$3,000	$0.89	44d	1	1.24mi
1740 Jamestown Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	3979	$3,299	$0.83	24d	1	1.24mi
1312 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2890	$3,400	$1.18	44d	1	1.27mi
1665 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2907	$3,200	$1.10	13d	1	1.35mi
1644 Pegasus Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2810	$2,795	$0.99	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $443,007 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $443,007 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $443,007 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $443,007 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $443,007 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $443,007 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $443,007 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $443,007 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $443,007 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $443,007 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $443,007 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $443,007 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $443,007 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $443,007 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $443,007 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    MLS# 21142491 - Built by First Texas Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2026-05-06
    price $443,007 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    MLS# 21142491 - Built by First Texas Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-01-21
    price $440,937 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    MLS# 21142491 - Built by First Texas Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

18. 2026-01-20
    price $440,937 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2026-01-20
    price $440,950 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

20. 2026-01-20
    price $440,950 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

21. 2026-01-02
    listed $440,937 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    MLS# 21142491 - Built by First Texas Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

22. 2025-12-31
    listed $440,937 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Discover this impressive two-story home offering 2,894 square feet of elegant living space, featuring five spacious bedrooms and three full baths. The gourmet kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 42-inch painted white cabinetry, and ample prep space, ideal for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas, while the primary suite on the main level provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor are perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, dedicated media room, and comfortable secondary bedrooms. With a two-car garage and thoughtful design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for modern living. Schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,164 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,107 · $676/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,943/yr (+$412/mo · 156.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,815
• − Property taxes: −$3,164
• − Insurance: −$2,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,985
• − Management: −$2,985
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$12,887
• Taxable loss: −$12,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $443,007 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $443,007 NTREIS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $440,937 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $440,937 Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $440,950 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $440,950 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Listed $440,937 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $440,937 Zillow