1228 Bahama Ln · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$279,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1965 0.37 ac lot $175/sqft · 34% above area Est $208k · 34% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coastal Retreat on 3 Lots – Port Bolivar, TX Welcome to your perfect beachside escape! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,590 sq ft of comfortable living space and is nestled on three spacious lots, providing ample room to relax, entertain, or expand. The primary suite features a disabled-accessible bathroom, making this home ideal for all lifestyles. Enjoy the convenience of covered storage beneath the home—perfect for vehicles, golf carts, or beach gear—and a separate storage building in the backyard for added utility. The home also has a cargo lift on the front of the home. Located just minutes from the Galveston Ferry, this property offers quick access to Galveston Island, while still being moments from local fishing spots and the beach. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity, this coastal gem has it all!

Key facts

• Cargo lift
• Coastal retreat
• Local fishing spots

Tags

• COASTAL RETREAT
• COVERED STORAGE
• SEPARATE STORAGE BUILDING
• CARGO LIFT
• LOCAL FISHING SPOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.43%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,922
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: 34.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-31,840
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-9,640
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,322/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,986

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $284	+0% $205	+5% $126	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $77	+0% $205	+5% $333	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $276	base $205	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
986 Bahama Ln Port Bolivar, TX	4.0	2.0	1200	$3,245	$2.70	45d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2025-11-13
   listed $279,000 Active 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Coastal Retreat on 3 Lots – Port Bolivar, TX Welcome to your perfect beachside escape! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,590 sq ft of comfortable living space and is nestled on three spacious lots, providing ample room to relax, entertain, or expand. The primary suite features a disabled-accessible bathroom, making this home ideal for all lifestyles. Enjoy the convenience of covered storage beneath the home—perfect for vehicles, golf carts, or beach gear—and a separate storage building in the backyard for added utility. The home also has a cargo lift on the front of the home. Located just minutes from the Galveston Ferry, this property offers quick access to Galveston Island, while still being moments from local fishing spots and the beach. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity, this coastal gem has it all!

3. 2025-11-13
   historical

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Coastal Retreat on 3 Lots – Port Bolivar, TX Welcome to your perfect beachside escape! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,590 sq ft of comfortable living space and is nestled on three spacious lots, providing ample room to relax, entertain, or expand. The primary suite features a disabled-accessible bathroom, making this home ideal for all lifestyles. Enjoy the convenience of covered storage beneath the home—perfect for vehicles, golf carts, or beach gear—and a separate storage building in the backyard for added utility. The home also has a cargo lift on the front of the home. Located just minutes from the Galveston Ferry, this property offers quick access to Galveston Island, while still being moments from local fishing spots and the beach. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity, this coastal gem has it all!

4. 2025-11-08
   listed $279,000 Active
5. 2025-11-02
   status Active
6. 2025-11-02
   price $279,000
7. 2025-10-31
   historical
8. 2025-07-23
   price $295,000
9. 2025-07-23
   price $295,000
10. 2025-05-13
    listed $320,000 Active
11. 2000-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,783/yr (+$315/mo · 286.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,322
• − Insurance: −$9,423
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,115
• − Management: −$3,115
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$1,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$427
• After-tax cash flow: $2,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $279,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $295,000 BBOR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2000-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,322 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.