200 W 1st St · Mill Spring, MO 63952

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1946

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Home needs some work but we have been living in it. Very quiet neighborhood right across the road from train tracks.

Key facts

• Built 1946
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($870 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#903 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Clearwater R-I (rural): math 33% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #255 of 324 in MO (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $738 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $600 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 120.66%
• DSCR: 6.37
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.83×
• Total profit: $38,276
• Equity at exit: $8,993

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.36×
• Total profit: $86,009
• Equity at exit: $13,859

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63952

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $133/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $157

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $20,000 Active
16. 2026-02-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $133 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 45.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$133
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$835
• − Management: −$835
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $6,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,640
• After-tax cash flow: $5,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clearwater R-I
• NCES district ID: 2909750
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $31,119
• Composite: 26.89/100
• National rank: #7095
• State rank: #255 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mill Spring

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #903
• US rank: #25589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mill Spring, MO
• Population (ZIP): 316

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,005 people
• By 2030: 12,767 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,319 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 11,828 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 10,806 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 9,610 · -26.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.4% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.6pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+70.5 2016: R+64.4 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $20,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $133 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.