7030 Stovesand Rd · Cedar Hill, MO 63016

$30,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 600 sqft · Other public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1940 8,855 sqft lot $50/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for peace, privacy, and a place to fish right out your back door? This charming riverfront home offers exactly that. With steps leading down to Big River, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is the perfect retreat for anyone who loves the outdoors, quiet mornings, and relaxing water views. In the front, you’ll enjoy scenic farmland views that add to the calm, country feel. Inside, the home offers over 600 square feet of efficient living space, plus a basement garage for storage or parking. Updated panel, roof, furnace, septic field and steps down to the river. Even with its serene setting, you’re only 2 minutes from Highway 30, making this a rare combination of convenience and getaway vibes.

Key facts

• 8,855 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.72%
• DSCR: 4.81
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,658
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -59.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $6,468
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $20,987
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63016

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $434/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $801

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $182	+0% $174	+5% $165	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $133	+0% $174	+5% $214	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $181	base $174	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $30,000 Pending 58 DOM
2. 2026-04-23
   price $50,000 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Looking for peace, privacy, and a place to fish right out your back door? This charming riverfront home offers exactly that. With steps leading down to Big River, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is the perfect retreat for anyone who loves the outdoors, quiet mornings, and relaxing water views. In the front, you’ll enjoy scenic farmland views that add to the calm, country feel. Inside, the home offers over 600 square feet of efficient living space, plus a basement garage for storage or parking. Updated panel, roof, furnace, septic field and steps down to the river. Even with its serene setting, you’re only 2 minutes from Highway 30, making this a rare combination of convenience and getaway vibes.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $60,000 Active 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Looking for peace, privacy, and a place to fish right out your back door? This charming riverfront home offers exactly that. With steps leading down to Big River, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is the perfect retreat for anyone who loves the outdoors, quiet mornings, and relaxing water views. In the front, you’ll enjoy scenic farmland views that add to the calm, country feel. Inside, the home offers over 600 square feet of efficient living space, plus a basement garage for storage or parking. Updated panel, roof, furnace, septic field and steps down to the river. Even with its serene setting, you’re only 2 minutes from Highway 30, making this a rare combination of convenience and getaway vibes.

4. 2026-04-03
   historical $60,000 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Looking for peace, privacy, and a place to fish right out your back door? This charming riverfront home offers exactly that. With steps leading down to Big River, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is the perfect retreat for anyone who loves the outdoors, quiet mornings, and relaxing water views. In the front, you’ll enjoy scenic farmland views that add to the calm, country feel. Inside, the home offers over 600 square feet of efficient living space, plus a basement garage for storage or parking. Updated panel, roof, furnace, septic field and steps down to the river. Even with its serene setting, you’re only 2 minutes from Highway 30, making this a rare combination of convenience and getaway vibes.

5. 2007-06-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $434 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $434 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$434
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $2,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$487
• After-tax cash flow: $1,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,998
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5034
• State rank: #128 of 324 in MO

Livability — Cedar Hill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #17264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,291
• Population (ZIP): 6,291

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.62%
• Current HPI: 225.3731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $434 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.