106 Lewis Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$850,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,463 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 0.56 ac lot Garage $581/sqft · 30% below area Est $1.212M · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this classic two-story handyman special, offered * * as is * * and ideally located in the highly desirable hamlet of East Quogue. Brimming with potential, this property presents a fantastic opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to renovate and create their dream home. With its prime location and endless possibilities, this is your chance to add your personal vision and make the most of everything East Quogue has to offer. It has three bedrooms, one full bath home and sits on a generous . 56 acre lot. The property features a detached garage with additional space on the second floor, accessible via a separate exterior entrance.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Detached garage
• 0.56 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• GENEROUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $850k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $850k).
• Recommended offer: $748k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 6.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 91% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,758/mo this rent would consume 121% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $375k; list at $850k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $748,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.42%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,212,160
• List price: $850,000
• Delta: -29.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Weesuck Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-7%)	4mo	$943,500	$694	56
5 Argyle Rd	0.83mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+2%)	9mo	$1,085,000	$723	49
12 Halsey Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-6%)	14mo	$980,000	$710	48
20 Vail Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-18%)	15mo	$825,000	$688	45
107 Spinney Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+10%)	6mo	$1,275,000	$792	40
2938 Quogue Riverhead Rd	0.93mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+2%)	22mo	$810,000	$545	40
15 Bayside Ave	1.04mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+9%)	13mo	$1,749,000	$1,093	33
30 Kennedy Dr	1.02mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-9%)	17mo	$790,000	$594	31
1 Friese Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,543 (+6%)	20mo	$1,199,000	$777	31
6 Corbett Ct	0.93mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-16%)	16mo	$730,000	$593	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $69,483
• Equity at exit: $126,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $326,705
• Equity at exit: $73,492

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,119,500 ($697/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +18.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,158/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,259
• Net cashflow: $3,257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,635

Max offer price $850,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,738	-5% $3,498	+0% $3,257	+5% $3,017	+10% $2,776
Rent	-10% $2,407	-5% $2,832	+0% $3,257	+5% $3,682	+10% $4,107
Rate	-1.0pp $3,685	-0.5pp $3,473	base $3,257	+0.5pp $3,037	+1.0pp $2,813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$4,200	$2.36	39d	1	0.09mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	139d	1	0.33mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	120d	1	0.43mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$9,000	$8.90	70d	1	0.52mi
452 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1510	$4,600	$3.05	22d	1	0.63mi
452 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1510	$4,600	$3.05	36d	1	0.63mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	101d	1	0.64mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	139d	1	0.93mi
32 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1666	$30,000	$18.01	120d	1	1.04mi
30 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	1592	$30,000	$18.84	139d	1	1.06mi
38 Baycrest Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	2.5	1260	$9,500	$7.54	51d	1	1.38mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayOne-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connected
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsProperty listed in fixer condition
• Construction: Brick constructionShake sidingCrawl attic
• Exterior features: Brick and shake siding exteriorNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two-level layout (multiple bedrooms across two levels)
• Flooring: Combination flooringWood flooringOther flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroomOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Built-in storage
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $850,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $850,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $850,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $850,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $850,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $850,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $850,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $850,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $850,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $850,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $850,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $850,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $850,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 109 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    price $850,000 Active 107 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $895,000 Active 107 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $895,000 Active 106 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $895,000 Active 105 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $895,000 Active 104 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $895,000 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $895,000 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $895,000 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $895,000 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $895,000 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $895,000 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $895,000 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $895,000 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $895,000 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $895,000 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $895,000 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $895,000 Active 92 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $895,000 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $895,000 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $895,000 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $895,000 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $895,000 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $895,000 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $895,000 Active 84 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $895,000 Active 83 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $895,000 Active 82 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $895,000 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $895,000 Active 78 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $895,000 Active 77 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $895,000 Active 76 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $895,000 Active 75 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    remarks 699-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,158 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,761 · $813/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,604/yr (+$384/mo · 89.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$5,158
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,327
• − Management: −$10,327
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable income: $26,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,405
• After-tax cash flow: $32,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,575–$65,835 screening

This two-story home in East Quogue requires significant repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, interior, and systems. While it offers potential for customization and improvement, the current condition is not suitable for immediate resale or rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Severe wear and discoloration.
• Major flooring — Worn and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Significant wear and discoloration.
• Major bathrooms — Outdated and in need of updates.
• Major kitchen — Outdated and in need of updates.
• Major HVAC system — Old and may need replacement or repair.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce potential maintenance costs. ↑
• Resale Exterior siding and paint — A fresh coat of paint and new siding would enhance the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Flooring and interior paint — New flooring and fresh paint would make the interior look more modern and inviting. ↑
• Resale Bathroom and kitchen updates — Modernizing the bathrooms and kitchen would make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and landscaped yard would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 5,871
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,871
• Household income: $106,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayOne-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connected
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsProperty listed in fixer condition
• Construction: Brick constructionShake sidingCrawl attic
• Exterior features: Brick and shake siding exteriorNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two-level layout (multiple bedrooms across two levels)
• Flooring: Combination flooringWood flooringOther flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroomOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Built-in storage
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+138.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,158 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.