Wagner Plan · Lockhart, TX 78644

$229,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 172 days

🏗️ New construction. The $229,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,244.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,085 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,244
• List price: $229,999
• Delta: -2.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Silvercloud Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,413 (0%)	0mo	$214,999	$152	90
2321 Silvercloud Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	1mo	$215,499	$146	90
2324 Silvercloud Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	4mo	$215,990	$147	87
421 Silvercloud Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,413 (0%)	3mo	$225,990	$160	86
405 Thunderstorm Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+2%)	2mo	$215,000	$149	85
2318 Silvercloud Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	2mo	$219,990	$175	79
420 Halfmoon Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+3%)	2mo	$190,000	$131	77
2330 Silvercloud Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	3mo	$224,990	$179	75
417 Silvercloud Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	2mo	$219,999	$140	69
423 Silvercloud Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	2mo	$222,999	$142	68
2306 Tornado Aly	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+3%)	3mo	$184,999	$128	65
2406 Windrow Ln	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,250 (-12%)	3mo	$175,000	$140	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,025
• Equity at exit: $35,076

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-60,974
• Equity at exit: $20,340

Cash invested: $65,868 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $228,999 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,234
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,529/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $205,863

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-122	+0% $-203	+5% $-284	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-274	+0% $-203	+5% $-132	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-143	base $-203	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,811
• Closing costs: $7,057
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2329 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,850	$1.00	65d	1	0.08mi
403 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	9d	1	0.20mi
416 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	93d	1	0.21mi
2404 Night Sky Cv Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,700	$1.03	46d	1	0.25mi
218 Sunshadow Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	32d	1	0.29mi
206 Sunshadow Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,750	$1.04	15d	1	0.32mi
432 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,550	$1.29	38d	1	0.32mi
432 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,550	$1.29	30d	1	0.32mi
2304 Blizzard Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	93d	1	0.33mi
415 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,600	$1.31	73d	1	0.33mi
406 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	32d	1	0.37mi
510 Sunray Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	73d	1	0.46mi
2400 Fullmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	93d	1	0.50mi
2306 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,650	$1.10	15d	1	0.56mi
2327 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,795	$1.22	9d	1	0.58mi
2329 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,750	$1.05	9d	1	0.58mi
611 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	60d	1	0.59mi
2318 Tornado Aly Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	9d	1	0.61mi
2306 Tornado Aly Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	73d	1	0.61mi
2215 Cyclone Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	62d	1	0.65mi
1510 S Medina St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	93d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $229,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $229,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,999 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,999 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $229,999 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $229,999 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $229,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $229,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $229,999 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $229,999 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $229,999 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,999 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $229,999 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $229,999 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $229,999 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $229,999 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $229,999 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $229,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $229,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,999 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,999 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,999 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $229,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $229,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $229,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,999 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,999 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,999 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,999 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,999 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,177
• − Property taxes: −$3,529
• − Insurance: −$1,176
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − Depreciation: −$6,843
• Taxable loss: −$6,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers modern living with a spacious open-concept layout and a luxurious owner's suite. It is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

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Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $229,990 Zillow