188 Pleasure Dr · Flanders, NY 11901

$1,299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique Post and Beam solid Oak construction. 35 foot high ceilings. Plenty of light via sky lights . Seclusion back of Sears Bellows Park. (2) horse approval. Plenty of room for pool/Tennis court . Must see.

Key facts

• High ceilings
• Seclusion
• Room for pool

Tags

• POST AND BEAM CONSTRUCTION
• HIGH CEILINGS
• SKY LIGHTS
• SECLUSION
• ROOM FOR POOL
• ROOM FOR TENNIS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.22M (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $937k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $937k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $937,487 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-239,816
• Equity at exit: $193,685

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-248,101
• Equity at exit: $112,314

Cash invested: $363,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,812
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,055/yr
• Insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,969
• Net cashflow: $-452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,947

Max offer price $1,219,185

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $324,750
• Closing costs: $38,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Maple Ave S Riverhead, NY	3.0	3.0	1710	$11,000	$6.43	24d	1	0.44mi
42 Pine Ave Riverhead, NY	2.0	2.0	1568	$4,100	$2.61	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $1,299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,055 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,004 · $1,167/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,949/yr (+$662/mo · 131.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $112,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,764
• − Property taxes: −$6,055
• − Insurance: −$6,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,000
• − Management: −$9,000
• − Depreciation: −$37,789
• Taxable loss: −$28,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,865
• After-tax cash flow: $1,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flanders

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #22674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flanders, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $1,299,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,055 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.