6182 State Route 123 · Columbus, KY 42021

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2017 3.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful county setting on more than 3 acres !!! The home features a large open living, kitchen, & dining area, perfect for gatherings & everyday living. With three comfortable bedrooms and two full baths, there’s room for everyone. ____ * _ * _ * _ * _ * _IMPORTANT DETAIL:_ * _ * _ * _ * _ * _ * ___ The home is currently connected to a neighboring property’s well, that water connection will be disconnected at closing as neighbor does not want to supply water anymore ! Buyer will have to drill a new well if they like water__ The seller is offering a credit at closing for the installation of a new well___ Because of the future well installation, some financing option

Key facts

• 3.5 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 97 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Chris Fulton Real Estate; Directions available: From Bardwell Baptist Church (323 US 51-N Bardwell, KY), follow Elsey Ave toward Arlington. Elsey turns into Hwy-123. Subject is 6 miles on the left.

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Level interior layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#417 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,205 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $32,513
• Equity at exit: $97,588

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $104,344
• Equity at exit: $167,130

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42021

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,367

Max offer price $157,600

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-49	+0% $-98	+5% $-148	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-148	+0% $-98	+5% $-49	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-54	base $-98	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    price $175,000
19. 2026-03-17
    listed $154,900 Active
20. 2020-01-10
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle County
• NCES district ID: 2100960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,978
• Composite: 30.43/100
• National rank: #6236
• State rank: #59 of 165 in KY

Livability — Columbus

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #20121

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Carlisle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,341 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,003 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 3,736 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 3,405 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 3,264 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carlisle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.3 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Current HPI: 200.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $175,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $154,900 WKRMLS
• 2020-01-10 Listed $169,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.