Plan 2335 Modeled Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$245,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,335 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Gas range * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen USB charging port * Loft * Low-E windows * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned park * Planned splash pad * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks

Key facts

• Loft
• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• GAS RANGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• LOFT
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $245,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,376.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,475 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,376
• List price: $245,995
• Delta: -17.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20231 Monday Hargrove Rd	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,346 (+0%)	12mo	$309,000	$132	59
206 Dogwood	1.46mi	4/3.0	2,409 (+3%)	8mo	$335,000	$139	51
26652 Saddle Rock Ln	0.96mi	4/2.0	2,112 (-10%)	11mo	$199,500	$94	38
31879 Casey Rd	1.19mi	4/2.0	2,722 (+17%)	3mo	$65,000	$24	35
3427 Silver Chalice Dr	1.25mi	4/2.0	1,995 (-15%)	5mo	$299,000	$150	35
26961 Lantern Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,909 (-18%)	7mo	$295,000	$155	32
139 Jett	1.35mi	4/3.0	2,914 (+25%)	7mo	$360,000	$124	32
20490 Lazy Creek Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,888 (-19%)	3mo	$350,000	$185	29
26221 Peach Creek Dr	1.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,783 (-24%)	2mo	$130,000	$73	29
3402 Silver Chalice Dr	1.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,886 (-19%)	10mo	$299,000	$159	27
20748 Lazy Creek Dr	0.87mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-23%)	10mo	$340,000	$189	27
19112 Kings Row	1.21mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,812 (+20%)	12mo	$279,900	$100	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-74,052
• Equity at exit: $44,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-113,082
• Equity at exit: $25,885

Cash invested: $83,825 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active
• Months of supply: 96.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $248,995 ($113/sqft)
• Median days on market: 122 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,570
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,491/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $255,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-202	+0% $-306	+5% $-409	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-394	+0% $-306	+5% $-218	+10% $-130
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-230	base $-306	+0.5pp $-383	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,844
• Closing costs: $8,981
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listingAddress shown as 20115 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney TX 77357
• Financial info: List price $255,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family new-construction home (Plan 2335 Modeled)Located in New Caney, TX
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,335

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open new-construction plan (Plan 2335 Modeled)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $245,995 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $245,995 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $245,995 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $245,995 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $245,995 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $245,995 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $245,995 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $245,995 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $245,995 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $245,995 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $245,995 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $245,995 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $245,995 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $245,995 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,995 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,995 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $245,995 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $245,995 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $245,995 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,995 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,995 Active 95 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,995 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $245,995 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $245,995 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $245,995 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,995 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,995 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $245,995 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $245,995 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $245,995 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,995 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,995 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,995 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,995 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,995 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $245,995 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $255,995 Active 77 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $255,995 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $255,995 Active 74 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $255,995 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $255,995 Active 70 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $255,995 Active 69 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $255,995 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $255,995 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $255,995 Active 62 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,995 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,995 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,995 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,995 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,995 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,770
• − Property taxes: −$4,491
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$8,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,675–$35,025 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances home's appeal for both buyers and renters ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and convenience ↑
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listingAddress shown as 20115 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney TX 77357
• Financial info: List price $255,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family new-construction home (Plan 2335 Modeled)Located in New Caney, TX
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,335

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open new-construction plan (Plan 2335 Modeled)