317 Redbud Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77423

$329,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,400 sqft lot 2-car garage $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Jackson home plan is a beautifully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The open-concept gourmet kitchen features a spacious island, seamlessly connecting to the living area, making it ideal for entertaining and family gatherings. A flex room on the first floor provides additional space that can be tailored to your needs, whether for work or leisure. The primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a double-door entry to the bath, complete with a separate tub and shower. Upstairs, the game room overlooks the family room below, offering a great space for relaxation. With walk-in closets in all bedrooms, storage is never an issue. This home features the AW Collection® Serene, with white cabinetry, natural textures, and soft earth tones that create a peaceful, open, and light-filled living space. This home is located in the new community of Azalea in Brookshire.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Walk-in closets
• Flex room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GOURMET KITCHEN
• FLEX ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE-DOOR ENTRY
• GAME ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,302.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-732 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,544 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.33%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,302
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -4.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,311 (-8%)	0mo	$319,990	$138	86
309 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,272 (-10%)	2mo	$390,843	$172	81
305 Stone Placa Trl	1.20mi	4/3.5	2,472 (-2%)	5mo	$338,990	$137	53
327 Palero Path	1.28mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-5%)	8mo	$315,545	$132	50
328 Palero Path	1.28mi	4/3.5	2,360 (-6%)	2mo	$329,990	$140	49
517 Stone Placa Trl	1.20mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-14%)	2mo	$318,760	$147	40
325 Stone Placa Trl	1.21mi	4/2.5	1,993 (-21%)	1mo	$259,990	$130	39
481 Stone Placa Trl	1.26mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-14%)	6mo	$299,990	$138	37
473 Stone Placa Trl	1.28mi	4/3.0	2,102 (-17%)	2mo	$324,990	$155	36
440 Stone Placa Trl	1.33mi	4/3.0	2,102 (-17%)	4mo	$329,990	$157	35
489 Stone Placa Trl	1.25mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-14%)	9mo	$307,005	$141	34
480 Stone Placa Trl	1.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-18%)	4mo	$289,990	$141	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-114,667
• Equity at exit: $56,108

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-187,242
• Equity at exit: $32,536

Cash invested: $105,365 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 168.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,490 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 61% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1235
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,973
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,645/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,372

Max offer price $270,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-472	-5% $-602	+0% $-732	+5% $-862	+10% $-992
Rent	-10% $-925	-5% $-828	+0% $-732	+5% $-635	+10% $-538
Rate	-1.0pp $-542	-0.5pp $-636	base $-732	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-928

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,076
• Closing costs: $11,289
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full property ownershipLocated in a cul-de-sac within a subdivisionLot features include side yard
• HOA & community: Part of Azalea Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $750Community poolCurbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door openerConcrete driveway
• Security: Storm/security shutters
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction by Ashton WoodsSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardFully fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemStorm/security shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas) with zoningCentral electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsNo fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $329,990 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $329,990 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $329,990 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $329,990 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $329,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $329,990 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $329,990 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $329,990 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $329,990 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $329,990 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $329,990 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $329,990 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $329,990 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $329,990 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $329,990 Active 14 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $329,990 Active 13 DOM

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    The Jackson home plan is a beautifully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The open-concept gourmet kitchen features a spacious island, seamlessly connecting to the living area, making it ideal for entertaining and family gatherings. A flex room on the first floor provides additional space that can be tailored to your needs, whether for work or leisure. The primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a double-door entry to the bath, complete with a separate tub and shower. Upstairs, the game room overlooks the family room below, offering a great space for relaxation. With walk-in closets in all bedrooms, storage is never an issue. This home features the AW Collection® Serene, with white cabinetry, natural textures, and soft earth tones that create a peaceful, open, and light-filled living space. This home is located in the new community of Azalea in Brookshire.

20. 2026-07-14
    price $329,990 Active 12 DOM

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    The Jackson home plan is a beautifully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The open-concept gourmet kitchen features a spacious island, seamlessly connecting to the living area, making it ideal for entertaining and family gatherings. A flex room on the first floor provides additional space that can be tailored to your needs, whether for work or leisure. The primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a double-door entry to the bath, complete with a separate tub and shower. Upstairs, the game room overlooks the family room below, offering a great space for relaxation. With walk-in closets in all bedrooms, storage is never an issue. This home features the AW Collection® Serene, with white cabinetry, natural textures, and soft earth tones that create a peaceful, open, and light-filled living space. This home is located in the new community of Azalea in Brookshire.

21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 12 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 11 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $359,990 Active 10 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 9 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 8 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 6 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 5 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 4 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 3 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 2 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on marketlisting id $359,990 Active 1 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 56 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $359,990 Active 55 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $359,990 Active 54 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $359,990 Active 53 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 52 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $359,990 Active 51 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $359,990 Active 49 DOM

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    The Jackson home plan is a beautifully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The open-concept gourmet kitchen features a spacious island, seamlessly connecting to the living area, making it ideal for entertaining and family gatherings. A flex room on the first floor provides additional space that can be tailored to your needs, whether for work or leisure. The primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a double-door entry to the bath, complete with a separate tub and shower. Upstairs, the game room overlooks the family room below, offering a great space for relaxation. With walk-in closets in all bedrooms, storage is never an issue. This home features the AW Collection® Serene, with white cabinetry, natural textures, and soft earth tones that create a peaceful, open, and light-filled living space. This home is located in the new community of Azalea in Brookshire.

39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 47 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 46 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $359,990 Active 43 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $359,990 Active 42 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 41 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $359,990 Active 40 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 32 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,079
• − Property taxes: −$5,645
• − Insurance: −$1,882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$10,947
• Taxable loss: −$15,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,610–$37,830 screening

This two-story home in Pattison, TX, is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious kitchen, luxurious primary suite, and a well-designed layout. Minor updates to the exterior and interior, along with landscaping improvements, can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal for potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance the primary suite and attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Fresh flooring improves the home's overall appearance and appeal for buyers. ↑
• Rental Exterior lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal, attracting more renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full property ownershipLocated in a cul-de-sac within a subdivisionLot features include side yard
• HOA & community: Part of Azalea Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $750Community poolCurbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door openerConcrete driveway
• Security: Storm/security shutters
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction by Ashton WoodsSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardFully fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemStorm/security shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas) with zoningCentral electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsNo fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-13 Price Changed $329,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Listed $359,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $359,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Listed $359,990 HARMLS