17 Zinnia Ln E · Poinciana, FL 34759

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2021 7,000 sqft lot $91/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To be built. To Be built. Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home, that offers open space for dining room and living room, open floor plan. House comes with LED lights, energy efficient windows, stove, dishwasher, etc. Enjoy all Poinciana has to offer, including all its family friendly parks and recreation sites for fishing, hiking, sports fields, dog parks and more. Also it is easy access to Poinciana Parkway, close to schools, shopping, dining and hospital. Builder pay closing costs . . photos are of similar model and not the actual house

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA required with monthly fee of $91 (Association of Poinciana Village); Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces southwest; Residential, PUD zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.16 acre lot
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $198k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,656 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-36,182
• Equity at exit: $54,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,276
• Equity at exit: $52,651

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,820/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $227,253

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-57	+0% $-128	+5% $-199	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-213	+0% $-128	+5% $-43	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-65	base $-128	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	5d	1	0.08mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	5d	1	0.23mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	5d	1	0.26mi
107 Lily Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	25d	1	0.29mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	5d	1	0.36mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	25d	1	0.39mi
3 Magnolia Blossom Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	21d	1	0.39mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	15d	1	0.47mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	4d	1	0.48mi
29 Orchid Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,890	$1.13	5d	1	0.53mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	5d	1	0.53mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	4d	1	0.53mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	15d	1	0.56mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	5d	1	0.56mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	16d	1	0.56mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	5d	1	0.57mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.59mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	25d	1	0.62mi
99 Orchid Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$1,900	$1.11	16d	1	0.66mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	5d	1	0.66mi
307 Michigan Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,744	$1.04	15d	1	0.66mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	25d	1	0.67mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	5d	1	0.70mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	5d	1	0.71mi
149 Conch Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	21d	1	0.72mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	25d	1	0.73mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	5d	1	0.74mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	5d	1	0.77mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	16d	1	0.77mi
1932 Michigan Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2236	$1,779	$0.80	5d	1	0.77mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	25d	1	0.78mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	15d	1	0.78mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	16d	1	0.80mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	5d	1	0.80mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	25d	1	0.80mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	0.81mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	25d	1	0.82mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	16d	1	0.82mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.82mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-30
   listed $239,900 Active
6. 2021-04-30
   soldstatus $197,990 Closed 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To be built. To Be built. Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home, that offers open space for dining room and living room, open floor plan. House comes with LED lights, energy efficient windows, stove, dishwasher, etc. Enjoy all Poinciana has to offer, including all its family friendly parks and recreation sites for fishing, hiking, sports fields, dog parks and more. Also it is easy access to Poinciana Parkway, close to schools, shopping, dining and hospital. Builder pay closing costs . . photos are of similar model and not the actual house

7. 2021-03-28
   status Pending 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To be built. To Be built. Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home, that offers open space for dining room and living room, open floor plan. House comes with LED lights, energy efficient windows, stove, dishwasher, etc. Enjoy all Poinciana has to offer, including all its family friendly parks and recreation sites for fishing, hiking, sports fields, dog parks and more. Also it is easy access to Poinciana Parkway, close to schools, shopping, dining and hospital. Builder pay closing costs . . photos are of similar model and not the actual house

8. 2020-02-27
   status Pending 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To be built. To Be built. Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home, that offers open space for dining room and living room, open floor plan. House comes with LED lights, energy efficient windows, stove, dishwasher, etc. Enjoy all Poinciana has to offer, including all its family friendly parks and recreation sites for fishing, hiking, sports fields, dog parks and more. Also it is easy access to Poinciana Parkway, close to schools, shopping, dining and hospital. Builder pay closing costs . . photos are of similar model and not the actual house

9. 2020-02-25
   price $197,750 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To be built. To Be built. Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home, that offers open space for dining room and living room, open floor plan. House comes with LED lights, energy efficient windows, stove, dishwasher, etc. Enjoy all Poinciana has to offer, including all its family friendly parks and recreation sites for fishing, hiking, sports fields, dog parks and more. Also it is easy access to Poinciana Parkway, close to schools, shopping, dining and hospital. Builder pay closing costs . . photos are of similar model and not the actual house

10. 2019-09-13
    listed $188,750 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. To Be built. Beautiful 3 bed 2 bath home, that offers open space for dining room and living room, open floor plan. House comes with LED lights, energy efficient windows, stove, dishwasher, etc. Enjoy all Poinciana has to offer, including all its family friendly parks and recreation sites for fishing, hiking, sports fields, dog parks and more. Also it is easy access to Poinciana Parkway, close to schools, shopping, dining and hospital. Builder pay closing costs . . photos are of similar model and not the actual house

11. 2018-02-05
    soldstatus $15,600 Sold 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    Vacant Lot

12. 2017-11-14
    status Pending 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    Vacant Lot

13. 2017-11-10
    listed $18,000 Active 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    Vacant Lot

14. 2017-11-02
    historical
15. 2017-10-31
    listed $17,500 Active
16. 2005-06-07
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,820 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,820 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,820
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1042.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $197,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-25 Price Changed $197,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-13 Listed $188,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-05 Sold (MLS) $15,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-10 Listed $18,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Listed $17,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+44.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,820 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.