3915 E Greer St · Claypool, AZ 85539

$37,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 791 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 463 Days on market

Built 1950 1,749 sqft lot $47/sqft · 19% below area Est $46k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house needs some love and care. It is a great starter house for someone looking to invest in the place.

Key facts

• 1,749 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 463 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#48 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 463 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 463 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 121.50%
• DSCR: 6.41
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,319
• List price: $37,500
• Delta: -19.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5947 S Calle DE Loma --	0.28mi	2/1.0	728 (-8%)	13mo	$130,000	$179	63
4488 E Calle Pequena --	0.65mi	2/1.0	748 (-5%)	8mo	$22,500	$30	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $61,764
• Equity at exit: $5,718

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.44×
• Total profit: $141,124
• Equity at exit: $3,460

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85539

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $304

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 S Adonis Ave Miami, AZ	1.0	1.0	645	$1,650	$2.56	24d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $37,500 Active 463 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,500 Active 462 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,500 Active 461 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,500 Active 460 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,500 Active 459 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $37,500 Active 457 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $37,500 Active 456 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,500 Active 453 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,500 Active 452 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,500 Active 451 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,500 Active 450 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $37,500 Active 447 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,500 Active 446 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,500 Active 445 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,500 Active 444 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,500 Active 443 DOM
17. 2025-09-04
    price $37,500 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    This house needs some love and care. It is a great starter house for someone looking to invest in the place.

18. 2025-06-11
    price $39,900 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    This house needs some love and care. It is a great starter house for someone looking to invest in the place.

19. 2025-05-22
    price $42,500 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    This house needs some love and care. It is a great starter house for someone looking to invest in the place.

20. 2025-04-14
    price $44,900 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    This house needs some love and care. It is a great starter house for someone looking to invest in the place.

21. 2025-03-13
    listed $48,700 Active 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    This house needs some love and care. It is a great starter house for someone looking to invest in the place.

22. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $27,000
23. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus $15,000
24. 1994-06-20
    soldstatus $10,000
25. 1993-04-16
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $12,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $9,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Claypool

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #8966

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Claypool, AZ
• City population: 374
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 39% Two or more races 33% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Current HPI: 207.4672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+120.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $37,500 ARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $44,900 ARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $48,700 ARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1993-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.