6304 Firefly St · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$195,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $284k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with a bonus room located in the Jack Britt school district. Home offers formal dining, kitchen overlooking living room with breakfast nook, living room with fireplace. Large primary quite with walk-in closet and large bathroom. Two more bedrooms and full bathroom downstairs with a bonus room and half bath above garage. Two car attached garage, fenced in yard with shed all located on a cul-de-sac.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Formal dining
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• JACK BRITT SCHOOL DISTRICT
• FORMAL DINING
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FENCED IN YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: ALOTTA PROPERTIES REAL ESTATE

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Vinyl siding; Residential zoning (R10)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision: OTHER

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace in the living room; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John R Griffin Middle (math 43% / reading 53%, grade C-, #134 of 475 statewide, top 29%, 1,091 students, 40% FRL); Jack Britt High (math 58% / reading 72%, grade B, #161 of 535 statewide, top 30%, 1,890 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $160k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,438
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2831 Franzia Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,863 (+1%)	7mo	$291,500	$156	56
6470 Gaddis Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,870 (+1%)	1mo	$302,500	$162	56
6261 Stoney Point Loop	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,802 (-2%)	5mo	$235,000	$130	55
3005 Thornhill Rd	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,870 (+1%)	10mo	$285,000	$152	52
2328 Lull Water Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,962 (+6%)	4mo	$299,900	$153	48
6236 Stoney Point Loop	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,814 (-2%)	11mo	$263,000	$145	47
3402 Wipperwill Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-11%)	10mo	$255,000	$154	45
2912 Franzia Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,972 (+7%)	9mo	$314,900	$160	44
2915 Bolla Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,961 (+6%)	6mo	$315,000	$161	42
6324 Stoney Point Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$101	42
6229 Stoney Point Loop	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-11%)	4mo	$250,000	$152	39
3004 Brookcrossing Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-13%)	7mo	$248,000	$154	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,597
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,145
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,258/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 Wetherby Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1601	$1,800	$1.12	13d	1	0.51mi
6258 Stoney Point Loop Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,300	$1.28	13d	1	0.70mi
2900 Brookcrossing Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	3.0	1894	$2,000	$1.06	13d	1	0.87mi
6311 Jacobs Creek Cir Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,300	$0.93	13d	1	0.89mi
3831 Queen Anne Loop Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1274	$1,743	$1.37	13d	7	1.01mi
7143 Stoney Point Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,545	$0.91	23d	1	1.11mi
4032 Newgate St Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,750	$1.24	23d	1	1.21mi
3110 Soacha Ct Fayetteville, NC	4.0	3.5	2600	$2,600	$1.00	13d	1	1.28mi
3511 Birchfield Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1270	$1,685	$1.33	13d	5	1.33mi
6017 Lakeway Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,750	$1.02	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2021-05-28
   soldstatus $160,000
4. 2005-12-30
   soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,258 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,258 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,258
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $3,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+182.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $195,000 LPRMLS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,258 · +28.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.