4601 Carmen Ave · Rancho Viejo, TX 78575

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1982 1,176 sqft lot $87/sqft · 30% below area Est $284k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great upstairs condo overlooking beautiful, peaceful, fairway greens all tile and wood laminate flooring throughout both water heater & outdoor and inside A/C unit have been replace are less than 2 years old.

Key facts

• New boiler
• Second floor
• New a/c

Tags

• NEW A/C
• NEW ROOF
• NEW BOILER
• TWO OUTSIDE PATIO DECKS
• SECOND FLOOR
• PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Lago Viejo subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly dues

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; 2 stories
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Residential construction
• Exterior features: Deck; In-ground pool

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bar
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.85%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,676
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -17.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Santa Ana Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (+4%)	0mo	$285,000	$141	76
1604 Santa Ana Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,099 (+8%)	12mo	$349,999	$167	66
416 Zapata Ave	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,978 (+2%)	18mo	$245,000	$124	57
1404 Santa Ana Ave	0.24mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,195 (+13%)	6mo	$289,000	$132	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,600
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $62,937
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78575

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,743/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1704 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,700	$1.39	13d	1	0.04mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1603 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$2,400	$1.81	13d	1	0.04mi
629 Balboa Rd Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,000	$1.20	13d	1	0.51mi
215 Zapata Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	3.0	1953	$2,300	$1.18	13d	1	0.60mi
811 De Leon Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	3.0	2050	$2,100	$1.02	43d	1	0.61mi
3803 Carmen Ave Olmito, TX	4.0	3.0	2075	$2,100	$1.01	43d	1	0.69mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	13d	1	1.13mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	13d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on marketlisting id $170,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $235,000 Active 753-char remark
18. 2018-12-05
    soldstatus 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Great upstairs condo overlooking beautiful, peaceful, fairway greens all tile and wood laminate flooring throughout both water heater & outdoor and inside A/C unit have been replace are less than 2 years old.

19. 2018-11-30
    soldstatus
20. 2018-10-15
    listed $75,000
21. 2018-09-28
    soldstatus
22. 2018-09-21
    listed $67,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Great upstairs condo overlooking beautiful, peaceful, fairway greens all tile and wood laminate flooring throughout both water heater & outdoor and inside A/C unit have been replace are less than 2 years old.

23. 2018-05-01
    listed $79,500
24. 2018-04-18
    soldstatus
25. 2012-09-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,743 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,743 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,743
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $5,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,253
• After-tax cash flow: $6,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rancho Viejo

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #7444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Viejo, TX
• City population: 4,728
• Population (ZIP): 4,728

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 36% White 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 240.4582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+113.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $170,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $160,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $235,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-05 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2018-10-15 Listed $75,000 RGVMLS
• 2018-09-28 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2018-09-21 Listed $67,000 RGVMLS
• 2018-05-01 Listed $79,500 RGVMLS
• 2018-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,743 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.