14 Irvin Rd · Mills River, NC 28768

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1983 2.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on a generous 2.52-acre parcel, this home offers a rare blend of privacy, flexibility, and convenience in one of the area’s most sought-after communities, Pisgah Forest. The home provides a practical floor plan with plenty of room to update, personalize, or reimagine to suit your needs. Sold as-is, it’s an excellent opportunity for a primary residence, mountain getaway, or investment property. A standout feature of this property is the separate two-story structure included on-site. This versatile building opens the door to endless possibilities—workshop, hobby space, studio, storage, or potential guest accommodations with the right updates. Enjoy peaceful surroundings

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Pisgah forest area
• 2.52-acre parcel

Tags

• 2.52-ACRE PARCEL
• SEPARATE TWO-STORY STRUCTURE
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• LOCAL CONVENIENCES
• PISGAH FOREST AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family residential (manufactured doublewide); One level
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Wood construction materials; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured doublewide
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Rear porch; Private lot with views; Gravel road access (private maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven / range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Living room with wood-burning fireplace; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.3% in Mills River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#253 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Transylvania County Schools (town): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #79 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Transylvania County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Transylvania County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $150k implies a 466% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.21%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Knollview Ter	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,268 (+10%)	12mo	$355,000	$280	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,358
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $42,850
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28768

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $821/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $508	+0% $466	+5% $423	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $393	+0% $466	+5% $538	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $541	-0.5pp $504	base $466	+0.5pp $427	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $150,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-04-23
    price $199,000
18. 2026-03-11
    price $205,000
19. 2026-02-22
    listed $220,000 Active
20. 2025-08-19
    price $229,000
21. 2025-06-12
    status Active
22. 2025-05-17
    status Active
23. 2025-02-14
    listed $239,000 Active
24. 1998-08-07
    soldstatus $26,500
25. 1997-12-17
    soldstatus $36,000
26. 1994-04-01
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 49.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$821
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$807
• After-tax cash flow: $4,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Transylvania County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704530
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,365
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3938
• State rank: #79 of 178 in NC

Livability — Mills River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #11185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,555
• Population (ZIP): 6,836

Population outlook (Transylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,142 people
• By 2030: 32,987 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 32,159 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 30,937 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 27,778 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 24,136 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Transylvania

• 2024 margin: R (+12.2) · D 43.3% · R 55.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.2 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+22.5 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.50%
• Current HPI: 237.1205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+391.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $205,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $220,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $229,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listed $239,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records
• 1997-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $821 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.