509 Wild Spur Ln · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$339,990

8 bd · None ba · — sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Est $369k · 8% under $41/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! The Bryce features a second-story loft area that the kids will love. Almond cabinets with marble-look white quartz countertops, cool beige laminate flooring, and multi-tone taupe carpet in our Essence package. Small-town charm meets big-city amenities in the heart of this Liberty Hill community. Situated just off Hwy 29, the “Americana Collection” at Butler Farms offers functional floorplans with fabulous included features like walk-in showers, covered patios and designer curated interior packages. Find your dream home in this gorgeous community located in the highly-acclaimed Liberty Hill ISD. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Covered patios
• Almond cabinets
• Walk-in showers

Tags

• SECOND-STORY LOFT AREA
• ALMOND CABINETS
• COVERED PATIOS
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/?-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $340k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,878
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -7.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-13,986
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $12,499
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$779
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $339,990

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 827-char remark

   Show marketing remark (827 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! The Bryce features a second-story loft area that the kids will love. Almond cabinets with marble-look white quartz countertops, cool beige laminate flooring, and multi-tone taupe carpet in our Essence package. Small-town charm meets big-city amenities in the heart of this Liberty Hill community. Situated just off Hwy 29, the “Americana Collection” at Butler Farms offers functional floorplans with fabulous included features like walk-in showers, covered patios and designer curated interior packages. Find your dream home in this gorgeous community located in the highly-acclaimed Liberty Hill ISD. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

2. 2026-05-11
   listed $339,990 Active 827-char remark

   Show marketing remark (827 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! The Bryce features a second-story loft area that the kids will love. Almond cabinets with marble-look white quartz countertops, cool beige laminate flooring, and multi-tone taupe carpet in our Essence package. Small-town charm meets big-city amenities in the heart of this Liberty Hill community. Situated just off Hwy 29, the “Americana Collection” at Butler Farms offers functional floorplans with fabulous included features like walk-in showers, covered patios and designer curated interior packages. Find your dream home in this gorgeous community located in the highly-acclaimed Liberty Hill ISD. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,222 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,465/yr (+$372/mo · 254.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,560
• − Management: −$3,560
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable income: $4,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $8,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Hill, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $339,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,757 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.