1821 Live Oak Dr · Conroe, TX 77301

$219,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1974 0.38 ac lot $171/sqft · 19% below area Est $273k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED! This Brick home in Conroe, TX! Nestled north of Houston near the scenic Sam Houston National Forest, this inviting home features fresh paint and a welcoming interior. Enjoy the peace and tranquility of country living while staying close to the city’s conveniences. Don’t miss this opportunity to embrace a quiet, relaxed lifestyle in a beautiful Conroe location! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the OTHER HOMES we have in the Conroe Atrea. We even have an INVESTOR PACKAGE if you want to buy several homes. Just give a call for more details.

Key facts

• Country living
• Brick home
• Welcoming interior

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• CONROE LOCATION
• SAM HOUSTON NATIONAL FOREST
• COUNTRY LIVING
• WELCOMING INTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $220k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,745 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,874
• List price: $219,999
• Delta: -19.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1809 Live Oak Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+8%)	2mo	$199,000	$143	79
1810 Live Oak Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+3%)	22mo	$199,047	$150	70
1819 Pin Oak Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+11%)	6mo	$275,000	$193	66
—	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+11%)	12mo	$320,000	$224	64
1828 Porter Rd	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (-1%)	13mo	$325,000	$254	60
1708 Porter Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	54
2815 Beech River Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+11%)	1mo	$249,990	$175	54
14813 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+10%)	9mo	$238,990	$169	50
2418 Ridge Oak Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-3%)	11mo	$199,900	$160	49
1707 Hickory Burl Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+14%)	1mo	$195,000	$133	45
236 Cunningham Fir Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+13%)	13mo	$270,000	$185	38
1621 Hickory Burl Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+12%)	14mo	$243,000	$168	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-53,755
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-77,040
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,276/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $176,922

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11656 Conroe Porter Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,200	$1.24	43d	1	0.42mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2119 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,905	$1.66	43d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2143 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,188	$1.23	43d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,388	$1.44	12d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,698	$1.48	2d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,345	$1.39	2d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,353	$1.40	7d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,623	$1.41	12d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,580	$1.37	2d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,032	$2.32	1d	1	0.47mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	973	$1,854	$1.91	7d	1	0.47mi
1933 Argo Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,324	$1.37	24d	7	0.48mi
1558 San Sebastien Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,750	$1.04	2d	1	0.76mi
1530 San Sebastien Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1845	$1,900	$1.03	22d	1	0.78mi
2617 Castille Valley Pl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,800	$1.07	2d	1	0.80mi
1442 Natural Pine Trl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1848	$1,656	$0.90	14d	1	0.81mi
3006 Twisted Myrtle Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,759	$1.34	15d	1	0.92mi
1307 Vincente Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,300	$1.24	43d	1	1.02mi
3524 Cub Ct Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,665	$1.19	43d	1	1.14mi
1723 Hazelwood St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.14mi
1611 Hazelwood St Unit A Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,145	$1.14	24d	1	1.16mi
727 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,650	$1.23	12d	1	1.25mi
1299 S 7th St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,350	$1.40	18d	1	1.26mi
719 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	1.27mi
816 Lightningbug Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$1,724	$1.13	20d	1	1.29mi
817 Lovebug Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,595	$1.25	12d	1	1.32mi
805 Belvedere Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,624	$1.03	20d	1	1.37mi
1710 Leafhopper Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,830	$1.06	24d	1	1.41mi
200 Montrose Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,485	$0.88	12d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,999 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,999 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,999 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,999 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,999 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,999 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,999 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,999 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,999 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,999 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,999 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-01-30
    listed $219,999 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    JUST LISTED! This Brick home in Conroe, TX! Nestled north of Houston near the scenic Sam Houston National Forest, this inviting home features fresh paint and a welcoming interior. Enjoy the peace and tranquility of country living while staying close to the city’s conveniences. Don’t miss this opportunity to embrace a quiet, relaxed lifestyle in a beautiful Conroe location! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the OTHER HOMES we have in the Conroe Atrea. We even have an INVESTOR PACKAGE if you want to buy several homes. Just give a call for more details.

15. 2025-04-22
    soldstatus $120,000
16. 2024-02-06
    historical
17. 2023-10-06
    status Active
18. 2023-09-07
    status Pending, Continue to Show
19. 2023-07-23
    status Pending
20. 2023-06-27
    status Option Pending
21. 2023-04-22
    listed $199,900 Active
22. 2023-03-31
    historical
23. 2023-01-26
    listed $203,983 Active
24. 2019-11-21
    historical
25. 2019-08-24
    price $125,900
26. 2019-04-04
    status Active
27. 2019-04-02
    status Option Pending
28. 2019-04-02
    status Pending
29. 2018-11-17
    price $126,050
30. 2018-10-27
    price $128,970
31. 2018-10-27
    price $131,605
32. 2018-08-25
    listed $132,350 Active
33. 2018-08-09
    historical
34. 2018-03-23
    status Active
35. 2018-02-12
    status Pending
36. 2018-02-11
    price $145,000
37. 2018-02-09
    listed $135,000 Active
38. 2015-01-29
    soldstatus
39. 2015-01-28
    soldstatus Sold
40. 2015-01-02
    status Pending, Continue to Show
41. 2014-12-22
    status Option Pending
42. 2014-11-26
    listed $130,000 Active
43. 2001-05-01
    soldstatus
44. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$62/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,276
• − Insurance: −$1,897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,629
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+69.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $219,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-22 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Listed $203,983 HARMLS
• 2019-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-24 Price Changed $125,900 HARMLS
• 2019-04-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-17 Price Changed $126,050 HARMLS
• 2018-10-27 Price Changed $128,970 HARMLS
• 2018-10-27 Price Changed $131,605 HARMLS
• 2018-08-25 Listed $132,350 HARMLS
• 2018-08-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-02-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-11 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2018-02-09 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-01-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-26 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,276 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.