532 Blank Ln · Water Mill, NY 11976

$4,995,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2013 1.50 ac lot $1431/sqft · 42% above area Est $3515k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 532 Blank Lane—an elegant and fully renovated retreat nestled in the heart of Water Mill. Set on 1.5 acres of lush, wooded grounds, this timeless shingle-style home offers 3,500 square feet above grade, plus a finished lower level designed for entertaining and relaxation. Fully reimagined in 2023, the home underwent a complete transformation—new roof, wiring, insulation, electric, plumbing, kitchen, bathrooms, and more—blending classic architecture with today’s modern finishes. Natural light pours in through oversized windows and vaulted ceilings, illuminating crisp interiors and wide-open living spaces. Two original wood-burning fireplaces anchor the main-level living and family rooms with warmth and character. The open-concept kitchen features quartz waterfall counters, custom cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining area and vaulted great room—perfect for both intimate dinners and lively gatherings. With four bedrooms in total—two on the main level and two upstairs with a bonus room—and 2 full baths on the second floor plus a full and half bath on the main level, the layout is ideal for both privacy and comfort. A dedicated home office offers flexibility for remote work or quiet study. Downstairs, the finished lower level expands the footprint of the home, featuring a spacious entertainment lounge and a fully equipped movie theater—an unbeatable amenity for cozy nights and summer screenings alike. Step outside to your sun-soaked backyard oasis, where a recently resurfaced pool (just five years ago) sits surrounded by an expansive bluestone patio. Whether hosting guests, lounging poolside, or enjoying serene evenings under the stars, this private setting delivers the full Hamptons lifestyle. Move-in ready with a newer roof (2023), top-of-the-line finishes, and every modern comfort—532 Blank Lane is a rare Water Mill opportunity that combines scale, style, and soul.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Lush wooded grounds
• Finished lower level

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED RETREAT
• LUSH WOODED GROUNDS
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• DEDICATED HOME OFFICE
• FULLY EQUIPPED MOVIE THEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $5.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($81k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $5.00M).
• Recommended offer: $4.85M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $52,280/mo this rent would consume 348% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $466k of equity ($35k loan paydown + $431k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.40M cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$746k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.00M; list at $5.00M implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,845,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,515,345
• List price: $4,995,000
• Delta: 42.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
359 Noyack Path	0.38mi	4/3.0	3,400 (-3%)	1mo	$3,752,500	$1,104	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $2,970,099
• Equity at exit: $4,011,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $9,010,892
• Equity at exit: $8,178,102

Cash invested: $1,398,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $52,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26,194
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6,244 /mo · $74,925/yr
• Insurance: −$2,081
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,979
• Net cashflow: $6,782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $43,695

Max offer price $4,995,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,248,750
• Closing costs: $149,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Middle Line Hwy Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	3000	$80,000	$26.67	22d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,995,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $4,995,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,995,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,995,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,995,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,995,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-19
    listed $4,995,000 Active 1998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1998 chars)

    Welcome to 532 Blank Lane—an elegant and fully renovated retreat nestled in the heart of Water Mill. Set on 1.5 acres of lush, wooded grounds, this timeless shingle-style home offers 3,500 square feet above grade, plus a finished lower level designed for entertaining and relaxation. Fully reimagined in 2023, the home underwent a complete transformation—new roof, wiring, insulation, electric, plumbing, kitchen, bathrooms, and more—blending classic architecture with today’s modern finishes. Natural light pours in through oversized windows and vaulted ceilings, illuminating crisp interiors and wide-open living spaces. Two original wood-burning fireplaces anchor the main-level living and family rooms with warmth and character. The open-concept kitchen features quartz waterfall counters, custom cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining area and vaulted great room—perfect for both intimate dinners and lively gatherings. With four bedrooms in total—two on the main level and two upstairs with a bonus room—and 2 full baths on the second floor plus a full and half bath on the main level, the layout is ideal for both privacy and comfort. A dedicated home office offers flexibility for remote work or quiet study. Downstairs, the finished lower level expands the footprint of the home, featuring a spacious entertainment lounge and a fully equipped movie theater—an unbeatable amenity for cozy nights and summer screenings alike. Step outside to your sun-soaked backyard oasis, where a recently resurfaced pool (just five years ago) sits surrounded by an expansive bluestone patio. Whether hosting guests, lounging poolside, or enjoying serene evenings under the stars, this private setting delivers the full Hamptons lifestyle. Move-in ready with a newer roof (2023), top-of-the-line finishes, and every modern comfort—532 Blank Lane is a rare Water Mill opportunity that combines scale, style, and soul.

16. 2025-11-13
    historical
17. 2025-10-09
    price $4,995,000
18. 2025-09-04
    listed $5,250,000 Active
19. 2015-03-19
    soldstatus $2,000,000
20. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $2,000,000
21. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $2,000,000 Closed
22. 2014-11-12
    status Under Contract
23. 2014-09-30
    listed $2,500,000 New
24. 2014-09-29
    listed $2,500,000
25. 2001-06-26
    soldstatus $985,000
26. 1992-08-04
    soldstatus $71,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $627,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$279,798
• − Property taxes: −$74,925
• − Insurance: −$24,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$50,189
• − Management: −$50,189
• − Depreciation: −$145,309
• Taxable income: $1,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$473
• After-tax cash flow: $80,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6886.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $4,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $4,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $5,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $2,000,000 MLSLI
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $2,000,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-12 Pending — MLSLI
• 2014-09-30 Listed $2,500,000 MLSLI
• 2014-09-29 Listed $2,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $985,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,485 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.