The Todd B Plan · Calera, AL 35040

$264,317

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily · 1045 Days on market

Excellent condition $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Todd B is a three bedroom, two bathroom, 1395 square foot home. The front door opens to a spacious foyer and a coat closet to the left of the door. The foyer leads to the dining room straight ahead or to a guest bath on the left. From the guest bath, the side splits into two bedrooms. The dining room opens up to an updated kitchen on the right filled with granite countertops and top of the line appliances. Just to the side of the kitchen are the laundry room and pantry. The kitchen leads to the living room which features 9 foot ceilings and windows that flood the room with natural light. To the right of the living room is the master bedroom.

Key facts

• Listed 1044 days

🏗️ New construction. The $264,317 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,428.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 766 students, 68% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 26% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1045 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $170,821 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1045 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.15%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,428
• List price: $264,317
• Delta: -0.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,395 (0%)	6mo	$264,000	$189	92
00373 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-0%)	6mo	$260,000	$187	84
140 Ridgecrest Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-4%)	2mo	$224,000	$166	82
201 Bonnieville Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-3%)	5mo	$233,000	$173	82
145 Cattail Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+7%)	4mo	$219,900	$147	73
354 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+10%)	4mo	$306,987	$200	73
117 Ridgecrest Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-10%)	3mo	$159,600	$127	69
119 Creek Run Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-15%)	1mo	$186,000	$156	68
229 Saratoga Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,279 (-8%)	5mo	$199,900	$156	66
211 Saratoga Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	1mo	$213,000	$170	65
124 Cattail Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (-12%)	1mo	$180,350	$147	60
144 Enclave Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-12%)	3mo	$197,000	$161	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-73,679
• Equity at exit: $39,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-100,414
• Equity at exit: $22,863

Cash invested: $74,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $271,806 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 196 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,387
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,966/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,345

Max offer price $191,655

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-320	-5% $-412	+0% $-503	+5% $-594	+10% $-686
Rent	-10% $-638	-5% $-570	+0% $-503	+5% $-435	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-436	base $-503	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,107
• Closing costs: $7,933
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
172 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,600	$0.86	62d	1	0.07mi
188 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,595	$0.86	97d	1	0.07mi
224 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,650	$0.89	0d	1	0.09mi
240 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,645	$0.89	0d	1	0.11mi
223 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,635	$0.88	0d	1	0.12mi
248 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,595	$0.86	119d	1	0.12mi
252 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,695	$0.91	77d	1	0.13mi
255 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,625	$0.87	0d	1	0.15mi
116 Brookside Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1801	$1,695	$0.94	139d	1	0.24mi
181 Winners Cir Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,295	$1.06	0d	1	0.41mi
177 Winners Cir Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,395	$1.14	0d	1	0.41mi
148 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1340	$4,150	$3.10	97d	1	0.66mi
100 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,585	$1.27	115d	1	0.77mi
34 Dunwar Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,731	$0.98	93d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $264,317 Active 1045 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $264,317 Active 1044 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $264,317 Active 1043 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $264,317 Active 1042 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $264,317 Active 1041 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $264,317 Active 1040 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $264,317 Active 1039 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $264,317 Active 1038 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $264,317 Active 1037 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $264,317 Active 1036 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $264,317 Active 1035 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $264,317 Active 1034 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $264,317 Active 1033 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $264,317 Active 1032 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $264,317 Active 1026 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $264,317 Active 1025 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $264,317 Active 1024 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $264,317 Active 1021 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $264,317 Active 1020 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $264,317 Active 1019 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $264,317 Active 1018 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $264,317 Active 1017 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $264,317 Active 1015 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $264,317 Active 1014 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $264,317 Active 1013 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $264,317 Active 1012 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $264,317 Active 1011 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $264,317 Active 1010 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $264,317 Active 1009 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $264,317 Active 1008 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $264,317 Active 1007 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $264,317 Active 1006 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $264,317 Active 1005 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $264,317 Active 1004 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $264,317 Active 1003 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $264,317 Active 1002 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $264,317 Active 1001 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $264,317 Active 1000 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $264,317 Active 999 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $264,317 Active 998 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $264,317 Active 997 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $264,317 Active 996 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $264,317 Active 995 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $264,317 Active 994 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $264,317 Active 993 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $264,317 Active 990 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,317 Active 989 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,317 Active 988 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $264,317 Active 987 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $264,317 Active 983 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,812
• − Property taxes: −$3,966
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,692
• Taxable loss: −$10,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,610
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with updated kitchen and bathrooms, good curb appeal, and a solid structure. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are more durable and can add value to the home ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value to the home ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calera Intermediate School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Calera Middle F AL #147/257 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Calera High F AL #169/305 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 237,024 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $264,317 Zillow
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $262,951 Zillow
• 2024-01-05 Price Changed $264,195 Zillow
• 2023-12-22 Price Changed $263,788 Zillow
• 2023-12-15 Price Changed $268,411 Zillow
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $269,315 Zillow
• 2023-11-18 Price Changed $270,254 Zillow
• 2023-11-14 Listed $272,076 Zillow