3079 Bluebird Rd · Merriam Woods, MO 65740

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 982 sqft · Other · 41 Days on market

Built 1978 0.41 ac lot $80/sqft · 48% below area Est $152k · 48% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Loads of options in this 1.5 story house in Merriam Woods. This 3 bed, 1 bath home features an expansive Living Room, Dining Area, ample Kitchen space and generious bedrooms. Buyer and Buyer's agents to verify all listing information. FirstLook Period exipires on 06/05/2026 @ 11:00PM. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. First Time Buyers, complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Restrictions apply.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Gravel road access; Lot approximately 0.41 acre (180 x 100)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $714 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 6.8% in Merriam Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#444 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.73%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,379
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -48.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $88,474
• Equity at exit: $71,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.16×
• Total profit: $224,746
• Equity at exit: $153,480

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65740

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $349/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $79,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $83,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $83,000 Active 482-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$417/yr (+$35/mo · 119.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$349
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,853
• After-tax cash flow: $6,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Merriam Woods

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #18151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merriam Woods, MO
• City population: 3,495
• Population (ZIP): 3,495

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.18%
• Current HPI: 291.5553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $79,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-06 Listed $83,000 SOMO

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $349 · -33.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.