1155 SE Magnolia Loop · Watertown, FL 32025

$246,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1965 8,799 sqft lot Est $224k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the established Woodland Grove neighborhood of Lake City. Offering 1,682 heated square feet, this well-maintained home combines classic character with numerous valuable updates, making it move-in ready for its next owner. Step inside to discover a spacious living room with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, an inviting family room, and an open kitchen and dining area designed for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a gas stove, laminate countertops, and ample cabinet space. French doors lead to a private, fenced backyard where you’ll find a 12x12 storage building with

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open patio
• Covered patio

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• 12X12 STORAGE BUILDING
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.202 acres (110 x 80); Zoning: CI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story residential home; Subdivision: WOODLAND GROVE UNIT 1
• Construction: Block and brick construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential property
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,557 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,706
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 SE Magnolia Loop	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-5%)	4mo	$245,655	$154	81
195 SE Emma Pl	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,748 (+4%)	4mo	$232,000	$133	79
831 SE Evergreen Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+8%)	3mo	$360,000	$199	64
877 SE Evergreen Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+8%)	5mo	$410,000	$226	64
443 SE Melrose Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-8%)	18mo	$183,000	$118	61
231 SE Golf Club Ave	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (+1%)	6mo	$119,000	$70	55
654 SE Brown St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-8%)	12mo	$174,000	$112	52
993 SE Putnam St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (-14%)	6mo	$165,000	$115	50
1871 SE Baya Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-6%)	10mo	$175,000	$111	49
855 SE Evergreen Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,826 (+9%)	13mo	$360,000	$197	48
579 SE Baya Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+12%)	6mo	$165,000	$88	48
132 SE Tribble St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+7%)	3mo	$274,900	$153	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $115,734
• Equity at exit: $221,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $355,194
• Equity at exit: $477,924

Cash invested: $68,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,371/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $195,371

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-217	+0% $-287	+5% $-356	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-425	-5% $-356	+0% $-287	+5% $-217	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-224	base $-287	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,500
• Closing costs: $7,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $246,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $246,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $246,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,371 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,371 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,780
• − Property taxes: −$3,371
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$7,156
• Taxable loss: −$7,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+359.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $246,000 NFMLS
• 2025-05-15 Rental Removed $2,000 NFMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $2,000 NFMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $235,000 NFMLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $245,000 NFMLS
• 2024-10-31 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2024-09-26 Contingent — NFMLS
• 2024-07-17 Rental Removed $1,995 NFMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $249,000 NFMLS
• 2024-07-14 Listed for Rent $1,995 NFMLS
• 2024-06-20 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2024-06-13 Contingent — NFMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $245,000 NFMLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $255,000 NFMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listed $260,000 NFMLS
• 2022-05-05 Sold (MLS) $230,000 NFMLS
• 2018-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $96,500 Public Records
• 2004-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,700 Public Records
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,371 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.