297 N Bluewater Blvd · Mineral, VA 23117

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1998 0.92 ac lot $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful custom built home on the public side of the lake. Located in a gated Lake Anna waterfront community this home sits on a corner lot with a paved driveway. Boasting over 1,900+ finished sqft with vaulted ceilings and hardwood flooring. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and loft upstairs. 2 car detached garage connected by a walkway. Bluewater offers several common areas with a pavilion, boat ramp, boat slips for lease and a sandy beach area. Close to the Cove restaurant! Lots 80 and 81 are being sold together here giving you a total of 1.87 acres. Shed conveys!

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $150,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$330,990) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.35%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,990
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
297 N Bluewater Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,006 (0%)	0mo	$330,400	$165	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $30,038
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $96,330
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23117

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,558/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,381

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $937	-5% $895	+0% $852	+5% $810	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $755	+0% $852	+5% $949	+10% $1,046
Rate	-1.0pp $928	-0.5pp $890	base $852	+0.5pp $813	+1.0pp $774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2019-07-31
   soldstatus $239,000
4. 2019-07-30
   soldstatus $239,000 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   Beautiful custom built home on the public side of the lake. Located in a gated Lake Anna waterfront community this home sits on a corner lot with a paved driveway. Boasting over 1,900+ finished sqft with vaulted ceilings and hardwood flooring. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and loft upstairs. 2 car detached garage connected by a walkway. Bluewater offers several common areas with a pavilion, boat ramp, boat slips for lease and a sandy beach area. Close to the Cove restaurant! Lots 80 and 81 are being sold together here giving you a total of 1.87 acres. Shed conveys!

5. 2019-03-08
   listed $249,000

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   Beautiful custom built home on the public side of the lake. Located in a gated Lake Anna waterfront community this home sits on a corner lot with a paved driveway. Boasting over 1,900+ finished sqft with vaulted ceilings and hardwood flooring. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and loft upstairs. 2 car detached garage connected by a walkway. Bluewater offers several common areas with a pavilion, boat ramp, boat slips for lease and a sandy beach area. Close to the Cove restaurant! Lots 80 and 81 are being sold together here giving you a total of 1.87 acres. Shed conveys!

6. 2019-03-08
   listed $249,000 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   Beautiful custom built home on the public side of the lake. Located in a gated Lake Anna waterfront community this home sits on a corner lot with a paved driveway. Boasting over 1,900+ finished sqft with vaulted ceilings and hardwood flooring. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and loft upstairs. 2 car detached garage connected by a walkway. Bluewater offers several common areas with a pavilion, boat ramp, boat slips for lease and a sandy beach area. Close to the Cove restaurant! Lots 80 and 81 are being sold together here giving you a total of 1.87 acres. Shed conveys!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,558
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $8,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $8,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mineral

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,772

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 16% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.27%
• Current HPI: 335.147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-39.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $239,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-30 Sold (MLS) $239,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-03-08 Listed $249,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-03-08 Listed $249,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+34.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,558 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.