18186 Ferry Ave · Garden Grove, FL 34604

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · Manufactured public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1973 0.48 ac lot Est $206k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

Key facts

• New water heater
• New a/c
• Flex room

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• FLEX ROOM
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW A/C
• NEW WATER HEATER
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.48 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Limerock road surface; No waterfront or water access; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); Residential property; Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Street dead-end

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hernando High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,299 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,416
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18112 Nicholas Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	7mo	$259,900	$180	78
18059 Carrolwood Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+3%)	1mo	$177,500	$126	72
3258 Kentucky St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	7mo	$189,900	$152	70
2457 Ivywood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+11%)	3mo	$185,000	$122	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,416
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,158
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18043 Ferry Ave Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,800	$1.21	24d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    price $199,900
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $229,000 Active
17. 2025-08-22
    soldstatus $70,000
18. 2025-08-06
    historical
19. 2025-04-02
    listed $70,000 Active
20. 2022-12-16
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

21. 2022-12-16
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

22. 2022-12-16
    soldstatus $35,000

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

23. 2022-12-07
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

24. 2022-12-07
    status Pending 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

25. 2022-11-03
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

26. 2022-11-03
    price $49,900

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

27. 2022-11-03
    listed $49,900 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

28. 2022-11-03
    listed $49,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

29. 2022-11-03
    listed $49,900

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

30. 2022-11-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Completely fenced, private wooded lot ready for your new home or manufactured home. A 1973 uninhabitable 24x57 double wide exists on property. Do not enter existing mobile home Well, septic, and electric on property with no guarantees. The property is being sold as is condition. Close to shopping, restaurants and medical facilities. Property is located off 41 and Spring Hill Dr. Easy access veterans toll road to Tampa airport, gulf beaches and Orlando Disneyland. Buyer to perform due diligence prior to submitting offer. Buyer to verify any restrictions with Hernando County.

31. 2022-10-17
    historical
32. 2022-10-17
    status Pending
33. 2022-10-17
    status Pending
34. 2022-09-19
    price $59,900
35. 2022-09-19
    price $59,900
36. 2022-09-19
    status Active
37. 2022-09-19
    status Active
38. 2022-09-01
    status Pending
39. 2022-09-01
    historical Active Under Contract - Accepting Back Up Offers
40. 2022-08-22
    listed $69,900 Active
41. 2022-08-21
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 94.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Garden Grove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden Grove, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 13,964
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+186.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Listed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) $35,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) $35,000 HCAR
• 2022-12-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-07 Pending — HCAR
• 2022-11-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-03 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-03 Listed $49,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-11-03 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-03 Listed $49,900 HCAR
• 2022-10-17 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2022-10-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-17 Pending — HCAR
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $59,900 HCAR
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-19 Relisted — HCAR
• 2022-09-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Contingent — HCAR
• 2022-08-22 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-21 Listed $69,900 HCAR

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.