1357 Sierra Dr · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$123,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 153 Days on market

Built 2002 1,742 sqft lot $205/sqft · 5% above area Est $117k · 5% over $218/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 1357 Sierra, nestled within the gated luxury resort community of Heritage Ranch. This is a rare opportunity to own an oversized 2002 park model home on your own land, offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and resort living. You’ll immediately fall in love with the warm and inviting home, designed with an open floor plan and exquisitely maintained features. This lovely home is being sold fully furnished, including appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Pride of ownership shines throughout with light and bright cabinetry, solid surface countertops dual paned windows. Your gourmet chef will truly appreciate this kitchen tastefully appointed with solid surface countertops and modern appliances, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to enjoy stunning mountain views and oversized storage shed. Home is paved and level with the street. This luxury park model is larger than many, offering exceptional space while delivering all the charm and convenience of a tiny home—complete with all the bells and whistles. Partial utilities are paid, and you own the land beneath you, adding lasting value and peace of mind. Heritage Ranch is a premier 55+ gated resort community featuring state-of-the-art amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, and a vibrant calendar of activities and events for an active lifestyle. HOA is $227/month and includes water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable TV. This scenic oasis is ready to welcome you—don’t miss your chance to enjoy luxury resort living at its finest. Call to schedule a private tour.

Key facts

• 1,742 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $123k implies a 435% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.53%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,650
• List price: $123,000
• Delta: 5.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1441 Prospect Dr	0.12mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	3mo	$124,900	$208	92
847 Birch Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (+1)	600 (0%)	1mo	$89,900	$150	83
1474 Western Dr	0.16mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	15mo	$110,000	$183	80
924 Acorn	0.13mi	1/1.0	540 (-10%)	1mo	$120,000	$222	76
1213 Bounty Way	0.11mi	1/1.0	650 (+8%)	8mo	$128,500	$198	75
1469 Heritage Ranch Rd	0.15mi	1/1.0	580 (-3%)	18mo	$99,900	$172	73
1356 Sierra Dr	0.01mi	1/1.0	641 (+7%)	20mo	$92,000	$144	71
1407 sierra Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (-8%)	14mo	$85,000	$155	67
1343 Western Dr	0.02mi	1/1.0	650 (+8%)	22mo	$110,000	$169	67
1292 Western Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	670 (+12%)	14mo	$134,900	$201	61
1241 Western Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (-8%)	21mo	$125,000	$227	60
1367 Western Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	680 (+13%)	17mo	$125,000	$184	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,220
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $33,168
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $423	+0% $388	+5% $353	+10% $319
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $322	+0% $388	+5% $455	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $420	base $388	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1389 Sierra Dr Unit 1389 Sierra Dr, San Jacinto CA 92583 San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,450	$2.90	24d	1	0.04mi
1382 Western Dr San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,650	$2.36	44d	1	0.06mi
918 Acorn Dr San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	44d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcablepoolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $123,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $123,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $123,000 1615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1615 chars)

    Welcome home to 1357 Sierra, nestled within the gated luxury resort community of Heritage Ranch. This is a rare opportunity to own an oversized 2002 park model home on your own land, offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and resort living. You’ll immediately fall in love with the warm and inviting home, designed with an open floor plan and exquisitely maintained features. This lovely home is being sold fully furnished, including appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Pride of ownership shines throughout with light and bright cabinetry, solid surface countertops dual paned windows. Your gourmet chef will truly appreciate this kitchen tastefully appointed with solid surface countertops and modern appliances, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to enjoy stunning mountain views and oversized storage shed. Home is paved and level with the street. This luxury park model is larger than many, offering exceptional space while delivering all the charm and convenience of a tiny home—complete with all the bells and whistles. Partial utilities are paid, and you own the land beneath you, adding lasting value and peace of mind. Heritage Ranch is a premier 55+ gated resort community featuring state-of-the-art amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, and a vibrant calendar of activities and events for an active lifestyle. HOA is $227/month and includes water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable TV. This scenic oasis is ready to welcome you—don’t miss your chance to enjoy luxury resort living at its finest. Call to schedule a private tour.

16. 2026-02-25
    price $125,000 1615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1615 chars)

    Welcome home to 1357 Sierra, nestled within the gated luxury resort community of Heritage Ranch. This is a rare opportunity to own an oversized 2002 park model home on your own land, offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and resort living. You’ll immediately fall in love with the warm and inviting home, designed with an open floor plan and exquisitely maintained features. This lovely home is being sold fully furnished, including appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Pride of ownership shines throughout with light and bright cabinetry, solid surface countertops dual paned windows. Your gourmet chef will truly appreciate this kitchen tastefully appointed with solid surface countertops and modern appliances, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to enjoy stunning mountain views and oversized storage shed. Home is paved and level with the street. This luxury park model is larger than many, offering exceptional space while delivering all the charm and convenience of a tiny home—complete with all the bells and whistles. Partial utilities are paid, and you own the land beneath you, adding lasting value and peace of mind. Heritage Ranch is a premier 55+ gated resort community featuring state-of-the-art amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, and a vibrant calendar of activities and events for an active lifestyle. HOA is $227/month and includes water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable TV. This scenic oasis is ready to welcome you—don’t miss your chance to enjoy luxury resort living at its finest. Call to schedule a private tour.

17. 2026-01-16
    listed $129,000 Active 1615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1615 chars)

    Welcome home to 1357 Sierra, nestled within the gated luxury resort community of Heritage Ranch. This is a rare opportunity to own an oversized 2002 park model home on your own land, offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and resort living. You’ll immediately fall in love with the warm and inviting home, designed with an open floor plan and exquisitely maintained features. This lovely home is being sold fully furnished, including appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Pride of ownership shines throughout with light and bright cabinetry, solid surface countertops dual paned windows. Your gourmet chef will truly appreciate this kitchen tastefully appointed with solid surface countertops and modern appliances, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to enjoy stunning mountain views and oversized storage shed. Home is paved and level with the street. This luxury park model is larger than many, offering exceptional space while delivering all the charm and convenience of a tiny home—complete with all the bells and whistles. Partial utilities are paid, and you own the land beneath you, adding lasting value and peace of mind. Heritage Ranch is a premier 55+ gated resort community featuring state-of-the-art amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, and a vibrant calendar of activities and events for an active lifestyle. HOA is $227/month and includes water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable TV. This scenic oasis is ready to welcome you—don’t miss your chance to enjoy luxury resort living at its finest. Call to schedule a private tour.

18. 2003-11-14
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $935 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 179.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $2,942
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$706
• After-tax cash flow: $3,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jacinto, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+434.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $123,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2014): $335 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.