434 16th Ave · Rockford, IL 61104

$215,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · MultiFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1923

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

TURN KEY DUPLEX IN ROCKFORD offering a great investment opportunity! This well-maintained property features two spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath units. Interior highlights include hardwood floors, updated bathrooms, and freshly painted kitchens. The property also offers a full basement, fenced backyard, storage shed, and a 2-car garage. Conveniently located near schools, dining, and everyday amenities. Ideal for an owner-occupant or an investor looking to expand their portfolio!

Key facts

• Turn key duplex
• Full basement
• Storage shed

Tags

• TURN KEY DUPLEX
• FENCED BACKYARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• STORAGE SHED
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $272/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,388/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $215k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.85%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,555
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 62.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $12,403
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $112,677
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61104

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 72%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,388
Total (2 units)			$2,388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $215,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    listed $225,000 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    TURN KEY DUPLEX IN ROCKFORD offering a great investment opportunity! This well-maintained property features two spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath units. Interior highlights include hardwood floors, updated bathrooms, and freshly painted kitchens. The property also offers a full basement, fenced backyard, storage shed, and a 2-car garage. Conveniently located near schools, dining, and everyday amenities. Ideal for an owner-occupant or an investor looking to expand their portfolio!

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $225,000 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    TURN KEY DUPLEX IN ROCKFORD offering a great investment opportunity! This well-maintained property features two spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath units. Interior highlights include hardwood floors, updated bathrooms, and freshly painted kitchens. The property also offers a full basement, fenced backyard, storage shed, and a 2-car garage. Conveniently located near schools, dining, and everyday amenities. Ideal for an owner-occupant or an investor looking to expand their portfolio!

19. 2026-02-07
    historical
20. 2025-12-03
    historical
21. 2025-12-02
    listed Active
22. 2025-11-09
    status Active
23. 2025-10-15
    status Pending
24. 2025-10-07
    price
25. 2025-10-07
    listed Active
26. 2025-06-27
    soldstatus $56,900 Closed
27. 2025-06-27
    soldstatus $56,900 Closed
28. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
29. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
30. 2025-05-01
    listed $56,900 Active
31. 2025-05-01
    listed $56,900 Active
32. 1997-03-18
    soldstatus $49,000
33. 1997-03-18
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,190 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,690/yr (+$141/mo · 112.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $3,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$767
• After-tax cash flow: $5,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,222
• Household income: $33,772
• Rent vs Own: 62.2% rent · 37.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 233.0219
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.67%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+359.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $225,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $225,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-09 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Sold (MLS) $56,900 NWIAR
• 2025-06-27 Sold (MLS) $56,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-05-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $56,900 NWIAR
• 2025-05-01 Listed $56,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,500 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.