3031 Moss Hill St · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$154,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Manufactured public records · 230 Days on market

Built 2000 4,080 sqft lot Est $153k · at est. $196/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2BR, 2BA 2000 Jacobson mobile home with fireplace. Hallway features a credenza. Home is in excellent condition. A must see to appreciate. Like Brand New!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Extra storage space
• Screened-in porch

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.09 acres; Concrete road surface
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association name: Barbara King); Monthly association/condo fee $196; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, playground, basketball court, shuffleboard court; Association fee includes maintenance of structures, water, sewer, trash; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, playground, pool; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Side porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Wet bar; Storage rooms; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $155k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,090
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3145 Hickory Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+1%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	82
3041 Short Leaf St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+3%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	78
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+7%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	76
3010 Whispering Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-3%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	74
3141 Great Oak St	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+8%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	74
3105 Briar St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-1%)	21mo	$218,000	$195	73
34135 Brown Byu	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (-5%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	71
34313 Countryside Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-8%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	64
34645 Lily Ln	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	60
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	988 (-13%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	58
3324 Carnation Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+6%)	19mo	$170,000	$142	51
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,727
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,385
• Equity at exit: $13,401

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$196
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $154,999

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.05mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.59mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	5d	1	0.62mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	12d	1	0.62mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	17d	1	0.62mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	24d	1	0.62mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	0.67mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	17d	1	0.73mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.76mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	0.82mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	22d	1	0.85mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	0.85mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	11d	1	0.85mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	15d	1	0.86mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	0.95mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.97mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	1.15mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $196 · $2,352/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,999 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,999 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,999 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,999 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,999 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,999 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,999 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,999 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,999 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,999 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,999 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,999 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,999 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-03-15
    price $154,999
15. 2025-10-31
    listed $168,000 Active
16. 2008-02-25
    soldstatus $79,500 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Beautiful 2BR, 2BA 2000 Jacobson mobile home with fireplace. Hallway features a credenza. Home is in excellent condition. A must see to appreciate. Like Brand New!

17. 2008-02-25
    soldstatus $79,500

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Beautiful 2BR, 2BA 2000 Jacobson mobile home with fireplace. Hallway features a credenza. Home is in excellent condition. A must see to appreciate. Like Brand New!

18. 2007-11-13
    listed $84,500 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Beautiful 2BR, 2BA 2000 Jacobson mobile home with fireplace. Hallway features a credenza. Home is in excellent condition. A must see to appreciate. Like Brand New!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − HOA: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $41
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+83.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $154,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2008-02-25 Sold (MLS) $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-13 Listed $84,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,121 · +296.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.