3012 Garrow St · Houston, TX 77003

$420,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,031 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot $207/sqft · 21% below area Est $530k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks—a prime **corner-lot fixer-upper** with exceptional upside in a sought-after location just minutes from Downtown Houston. This versatile investment property features a detached garage and carport, a metal-fenced backyard, and a flexible floor plan with rooms that can be easily reimagined or converted to suit your vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate, expand, or redesign for rental or resale, the layout offers endless possibilities. With its strong location, ample parking, and redevelopment potential, this property is ideal for investors or buyers ready to add value and unlock its full potential.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Carport
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• CARPORT
• METAL-FENCED BACKYARD
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,289 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $530,072
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: -20.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2706 Fox St	0.52mi	3/3.5	2,012 (-1%)	1mo	$499,900	$248	64
3811 Walker St	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,140 (+5%)	4mo	$360,000	$168	58
3618 Engelke St	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,181 (+7%)	1mo	$475,000	$218	55
1308 Delano St	0.67mi	3/3.5	2,037 (+0%)	4mo	$380,999	$187	55
2321 Ann St	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,197 (+8%)	1mo	$339,000	$154	46
331 N Nagle St	0.49mi	3/3.5	2,302 (+13%)	2mo	$475,000	$206	43
3906 Rusk St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,752 (-14%)	3mo	$425,000	$243	41
4022 Mckinney St	0.71mi	3/3.5	1,864 (-8%)	3mo	$299,000	$160	41
1401 Nagle St	0.72mi	3/3.5	2,228 (+10%)	3mo	$475,000	$213	38
413 N Nagle St Unit B	0.53mi	3/3.5	1,744 (-14%)	5mo	$375,000	$215	38
1216 Sampson St	0.61mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,729 (-15%)	2mo	$349,000	$202	34
1208 Sampson St	0.60mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,729 (-15%)	5mo	$349,990	$202	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-89,412
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-129,351
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77003

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,534/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,382

Max offer price $386,581

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2816 Rusk St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2107	$2,800	$1.33	43d	1	0.34mi
3226 McKinney St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2274	$2,500	$1.10	43d	1	0.45mi
2414 East Dr Unit Canal St unit Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2063	$2,950	$1.43	7d	1	0.45mi
2504 Rusk St Unit 1563174P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1819	$4,036	$2.22	3d	1	0.46mi
4001 Dallas St Unit 1029264P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2174	$5,077	$2.34	5d	1	0.71mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,045	$1.66	11d	1	0.72mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	12d	1	0.72mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,013	$1.64	3d	1	0.72mi
3131 Leeland St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1966	$2,850	$1.45	24d	1	0.74mi
15 N Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1351	$4,000	$2.96	1d	16	0.85mi
1757 Walker St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1575	$4,350	$2.76	24d	1	0.97mi
808 Crawford St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1740	$12,645	$7.27	1d	30	1.01mi
1475 Texas St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1304	$6,350	$4.87	43d	28	1.05mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	7d	1	1.09mi
1400 McKinney St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	2166	$12,100	$5.59	1d	9	1.11mi
3034 Gray St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2081	$3,000	$1.44	43d	1	1.11mi
1406 McKinney St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1987	$5,075	$2.55	24d	1	1.12mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	43d	1	1.17mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	1.19mi
3517 McIlhenny St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2000	$3,200	$1.60	3d	1	1.22mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.24mi
1211 Caroline St Unit 3584 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1562	$2,269	$1.45	43d	1	1.25mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	43d	1	1.25mi
717 Fannin St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1700	$3,800	$2.24	43d	1	1.26mi
1111 Rusk St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1230	$2,835	$2.30	1d	29	1.27mi
1515 Austin St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1120	$3,749	$3.35	1d	20	1.28mi
915 Texas Ave Unit 420 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2366	$4,655	$1.97	18d	1	1.33mi
915 Texas Ave Unit 420 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2366	$4,655	$1.97	43d	1	1.33mi
207 Edgewood St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2577	$3,250	$1.26	43d	1	1.34mi
409 Travis St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$3,292	$2.20	7d	1	1.36mi
409 Travis St Unit 432 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$3,316	$2.22	11d	1	1.36mi
409 Travis St Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$3,284	$2.20	3d	1	1.36mi
413 Travis St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$4,000	$2.68	43d	1	1.37mi
909 Texas Ave Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1262	$3,129	$2.48	1d	36	1.38mi
3518 Dennis St Unit 1387517P Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2271	$5,110	$2.25	14d	1	1.38mi
4952 Polk St Unit 1531107P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1980	$2,327	$1.18	7d	1	1.41mi
1399 Fannin St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1595	$3,846	$2.41	24d	1	1.42mi
3335 Tuam St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	2300	$995	$0.43	43d	1	1.43mi
2326 St Emanuel St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2642	$2,601	$0.98	7d	1	1.44mi
414 Milam St Unit B1-2003 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$4,513	$2.85	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-18
   listed $420,000 Active 639-char remark

   Show marketing remark (639 chars)

   Opportunity knocks—a prime **corner-lot fixer-upper** with exceptional upside in a sought-after location just minutes from Downtown Houston. This versatile investment property features a detached garage and carport, a metal-fenced backyard, and a flexible floor plan with rooms that can be easily reimagined or converted to suit your vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate, expand, or redesign for rental or resale, the layout offers endless possibilities. With its strong location, ample parking, and redevelopment potential, this property is ideal for investors or buyers ready to add value and unlock its full potential.

2. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,534 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,686 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,152/yr (+$346/mo · 117.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$3,534
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,017
• − Management: −$3,017
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$9,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,328
• After-tax cash flow: $58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,164
• Household income: $83,980
• Rent vs Own: 59.0% rent · 41.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 33% Black 21% Two or more races 20% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Korean 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.64%
• Current HPI: 130.0078
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $420,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,534 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.