2616 Timber Ln · Prien, LA 70605

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1967 0.32 ac lot Est $269k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming brick house features a 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout on 0.32 acres within city limits. Conveniently located near recreational areas. Don’t miss out—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Wall of windows
• Electric fireplace
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WALL OF WINDOWS
• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two garage spaces; Attached carport with two carport spaces; Open parking available (total 2 parking spaces listed)
• Utilities: Well water; Aerobic septic; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One-story; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single-family residence
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing (fenced yard); Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-210/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Prien — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#174 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.1%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $250k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,411 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4100 Prien Court Dr Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-0%)	2mo	$268,000	$137	79
2813 N Locke Point Dr N	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,899 (-3%)	2mo	$275,000	$145	78
2628 Park Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,078 (+6%)	17mo	$250,000	$120	65
2812 S Locke Point Dr S	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-8%)	11mo	$270,000	$150	62
4048 Woodcrest St	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,932 (-1%)	11mo	$264,750	$137	58
2404 Francis Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-0%)	19mo	$251,500	$129	57
1922 Sarah Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,996 (+2%)	10mo	$315,000	$158	56
2629 Park Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (-14%)	18mo	$269,000	$159	53
3525 Joan St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,118 (+8%)	13mo	$219,000	$103	41
3813 Heard Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,857 (-5%)	20mo	$211,000	$114	41
4236 Weaver Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-7%)	19mo	$182,000	$100	41
2020 Maison Rue	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	2mo	$230,000	$137	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,646
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $16,409
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70605

• Rents YoY: 15.1%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,926

Max offer price $246,802

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3535 Knight Ln Unit 14 Lake Charles, LA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,150	$1.48	13d	1	0.85mi
4015 Nelson Rd Lake Charles, LA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	43d	1	0.90mi
4021 Nelson Rd Lake Charles, LA	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,600	$1.17	43d	1	0.90mi
3708 Nelson Rd Lake Charles, LA	3.0	2.0	2020	$1,400	$0.69	43d	1	0.90mi
4607 W Prien Lake Rd Lake Charles, LA	3.0	2.0	1530	$3,500	$2.29	43d	1	1.13mi
4650 Nelson Rd Lake Charles, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,875	$1.82	13d	24	1.14mi
4326 Christina St Lake Charles, LA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,770	$1.11	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $249,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 669-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,374 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calcasieu Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200330
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $44,700
• Composite: 31.45/100
• National rank: #5979
• State rank: #29 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prien

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #14370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prien, LA
• County: Calcasieu Parish · 170,889 people
• Metro: Lake Charles, LA
• Population (ZIP): 40,482
• Household income: $86,015
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1328.0

Population outlook (Calcasieu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,179 people
• By 2030: 218,199 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 228,486 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 236,208 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 251,696 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 247,848 · +16.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calcasieu

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.6pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+33.3 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.68%
• Current HPI: 105.1903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.10%
• Metro: Lake Charles, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+142.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $249,900 SWLAR
• 2026-04-27 Sold (MLS) — SWLAR
• 2026-02-10 Pending — SWLAR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $149,500 SWLAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $159,500 SWLAR
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $177,500 SWLAR
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $187,500 SWLAR
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $197,500 SWLAR
• 2025-09-23 Listed $207,500 SWLAR
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) — SWLAR
• 2022-08-18 Listed $235,000 SWLAR
• 2005-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,286 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.