1417 Valparaiso St · The Villages, FL 32162

$379,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,723 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2001 5,824 sqft lot Est $351k · 8% over $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. * * BOND PAID * * Welcome to The Villages of Santiago and take a walk through this Oleander/Hawthorne combined Designer home that offers some really niche features. A large open living room with high vaulted ceilings will greet you as you enter. The beautiful luxury vinyl flooring you will see through out this home. Spacious Kitchen featuring wood cabinets, island, breakfast area with window and stainless appliances. There is a door to access the lanai from the breakfast area that is all set with a pet door for those with a fur baby, how convenient. The Dinning room features a pass through to the kitchen and french doors that provides another exit to the spacious lanai/m

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Stainless appliances
• Breakfast area

Tags

• LARGE OPEN LIVING ROOM
• HIGH VAULTED CEILINGS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.13 acres (64 x 91); Living area reported as 1,723 sq ft; total building area reported as 2,413 sq ft
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, racquetball, pickleball, shuffleboard, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox; Gated community with maintenance; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Total monthly association fees noted (community fees listed)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available and connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential zoning (RPUD)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (frame/vinyl siding)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalks; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Flooring throughout noted as ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Natural gas available/connected; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,077/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,674 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,492
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2630 Caribe Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-3%)	2mo	$320,000	$191	88
1404 Valparaiso St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,892 (+10%)	2mo	$335,000	$177	77
2517 Privada Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-11%)	3mo	$312,000	$204	67
2450 Merida Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,851 (+7%)	3mo	$350,000	$189	65
9430 SE 177th Simons Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,767 (+3%)	1mo	$339,900	$192	64
2573 Caribe Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-15%)	1mo	$320,000	$217	64
1305 LA Estrellita Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+6%)	0mo	$290,000	$160	62
3089 Burbank Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-4%)	2mo	$410,000	$248	61
2412 Merida Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-11%)	2mo	$282,500	$185	56
3017 Hillside Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-12%)	1mo	$334,900	$220	51
3065 Glenwood Pl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-14%)	2mo	$310,000	$208	48
3040 Batally Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$231	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-66,814
• Equity at exit: $56,585

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-56,693
• Equity at exit: $32,812

Cash invested: $106,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,485/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,240

Max offer price $356,755

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,875
• Closing costs: $11,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	21d	1	0.40mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	21d	1	0.42mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	21d	1	0.60mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	21d	1	0.64mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	0.73mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	21d	1	0.74mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	0.83mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	0.94mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	21d	1	1.11mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	21d	1	1.17mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	21d	1	1.18mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	1.21mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	21d	1	1.24mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	21d	1	1.26mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	1.27mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	1.30mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	21d	1	1.34mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	1.36mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	21d	1	1.41mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	21d	1	1.44mi
8544 SE 177th Bartram Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	21d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $379,500 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,500 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,500 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,500 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,500 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $379,500 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,500 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,500 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,500 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,500 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,500 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $379,500 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $379,500 Active
17. 2023-07-11
    soldstatus $340,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,150 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,258
• − Property taxes: −$2,485
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,954
• − Management: −$2,954
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$11,040
• Taxable loss: −$8,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $379,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,485 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.