2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 18D · Salem, OR 97317

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $200/sqft · 226% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into easy, modern living with this beautifully crafted 2024 Clayton Homes home, offering 800 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space in Salem. Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a private primary suite with en suite bath, this home delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. The open-concept layout creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the living room to a stylish kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances-perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With electric utilities and washer/dryer hookups, every detail is designed to make life simple and efficient. Step outside to enjoy your covered porch-an ideal spot for morning coffee or evening relaxation-plus an asphalt driveway for easy access and parking. Located in the sought-after Sundial 55+ lifestyle community, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting, friendly neighbors, and a true sense of belonging. Just minutes from local shopping, dining, and recreation, Sundial offers the perfect balance of tranquility and convenience.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Asphalt driveway
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PORCH
• ASPHALT DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($918/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,559 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,000
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 226.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 SE Lancaster Dr Unit 23A	0.01mi	2/1.0	828 (+4%)	3mo	$7,000	$8	87
2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 9C	0.01mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	2mo	$14,500	$20	79
2232 42nd Ave SE #111	0.24mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	11mo	$10,000	$12	67
2232 42nd Ave SE #781	0.24mi	2/2.0	871 (+9%)	11mo	$13,000	$15	64
2232 42nd Ave SE #407	0.24mi	2/1.0	784 (-2%)	22mo	$20,000	$26	63
4413 Essex St	0.35mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	13mo	$55,000	$65	61
2232 42nd Ave SE #114	0.24mi	2/1.0	726 (-9%)	12mo	$17,000	$23	59
3100 Turner Rd SE #429	0.60mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	17mo	$99,900	$125	58
3100 Turner Rd #431	0.60mi	2/1.0	760 (-5%)	9mo	$115,000	$151	52
2200 #22D Lancaster Dr SE Unit 22D	0.56mi	2/1.0	784 (-2%)	18mo	$35,000	$45	52
3100 Turner Rd SE #804	0.60mi	2/1.0	880 (+10%)	20mo	$139,900	$159	35
3100 Turner Rd SE #705	0.60mi	1/1.5 (-1)	872 (+9%)	24mo	$115,000	$132	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,587
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,753
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $132	+0% $76	+5% $21	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $17	+0% $76	+5% $136	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $117	base $76	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	15d	1	0.30mi
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.30mi
4435 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	807	$1,445	$1.79	24d	1	0.40mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	15d	1	0.58mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	24d	1	0.84mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,799	$1.93	15d	1	0.90mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	15d	5	0.95mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	15d	1	1.08mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	15d	26	1.10mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.12mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,554	$1.67	15d	25	1.25mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4433-205 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	688	$1,225	$1.78	45d	1	1.34mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	24d	1	1.34mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	45d	1	1.34mi
178 Lancaster Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	15d	1	1.41mi
4242 State St Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	684	$1,325	$1.94	24d	1	1.42mi
4166 State St Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	788	$1,350	$1.71	15d	1	1.44mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 143 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	15d	1	1.45mi
124 Stafford Ln NE Unit 124-203 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,595	$1.52	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-04
   listed $159,900 Active 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Step into easy, modern living with this beautifully crafted 2024 Clayton Homes home, offering 800 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space in Salem. Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a private primary suite with en suite bath, this home delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. The open-concept layout creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the living room to a stylish kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances-perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With electric utilities and washer/dryer hookups, every detail is designed to make life simple and efficient. Step outside to enjoy your covered porch-an ideal spot for morning coffee or evening relaxation-plus an asphalt driveway for easy access and parking. Located in the sought-after Sundial 55+ lifestyle community, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting, friendly neighbors, and a true sense of belonging. Just minutes from local shopping, dining, and recreation, Sundial offers the perfect balance of tranquility and convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$415
• After-tax cash flow: $1,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2024 Clayton Homes manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and two full bathrooms. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Upgrading the flooring to hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring to hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $159,900 Zillow