87 Red Wing Rd · South Wallins, KY 40873

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Other · 184 Days on market

0.43 ac lot $37/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

Key facts

• Private acres
• Country living
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• PARTIAL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#502 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.11%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,299
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -55.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $27,450
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $67,656
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40873

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $201/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $377

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $555	-5% $543	+0% $532	+5% $521	+10% $509
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $491	+0% $532	+5% $574	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $542	base $532	+0.5pp $522	+1.0pp $511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    status Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

15. 2026-05-12
    price $39,900 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

16. 2026-03-12
    status Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

17. 2026-03-06
    historical Contingent 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

18. 2026-03-06
    historical 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

19. 2026-03-02
    price $45,900 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

20. 2026-01-17
    price $49,900 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

21. 2025-11-08
    price $59,900 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

22. 2025-10-07
    listed $69,900 Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Endless Potential Awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream space. Nestled on .43 private acres, this property provides a peaceful setting with plenty of room to expand or personalize. Featuring a partial unfinished basement ideal for storage or future living space, this home is ready for your vision and updates. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or looking for a project, this fixer-upper has great bones, a solid layout, and the potential to shine with a little TLC. Enjoy the quiet privacy of country living while still being close to town conveniences. Don't miss the chance to bring this diamond in the rough back to life!

23. 2017-07-12
    historical
24. 2017-02-12
    listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $201 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 70.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$201
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $6,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $4,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — South Wallins

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #25475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,329
• Population (ZIP): 2,329

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.39%
• Current HPI: 176.4426
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $39,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $45,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $49,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $59,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $69,900 ImagineMLS
• 2017-07-12 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2017-02-12 Listed $15,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $201 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.