3147 Kurtz Ter · Haines City, FL 33837

$277,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,628 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 1,742 sqft lot $170/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This new two-story Bright townhome is ready for modern lifestyles. On the first floor, an open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor living. All three bedrooms are located on the second floor for optimal comfort and privacy, including the luxurious owner’s suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Brentwood is a master-planned community in Davenport, FL. Brentwood has something for residents of all ages to enjoy, including a resort style swimming pool and playground. Conveniently located close to Posner Park for shopping, dining and entertain

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Owner's suite
• $170 HOA

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• RESORT STYLE SWIMMING POOL
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIGHWAY 27

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bella Citta (940 students, 35% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $217,498 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,032
• Equity at exit: $41,449

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-119,993
• Equity at exit: $24,035

Cash invested: $77,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,647

Max offer price $224,033

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,498
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3123 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,050	$1.15	2d	1	0.03mi
3119 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,890	$1.16	23d	1	0.03mi
3111 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,050	$1.15	2d	1	0.03mi
3107 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,900	$1.06	23d	1	0.03mi
2939 Maloof Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,050	$1.15	23d	1	0.05mi
3122 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,900	$1.06	23d	1	0.05mi
3126 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1629	$1,900	$1.17	3d	1	0.05mi
3106 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,100	$1.18	14d	1	0.05mi
2641 Olympic Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.12mi
1105 Grassy Lake Dr Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,065	$2.09	3d	103	0.13mi
1532 Lumber Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.13mi
2613 Olympic Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1895	$2,200	$1.16	23d	1	0.15mi
1440 Plank Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.15mi
2419 Bevel Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,850	$1.14	23d	1	0.17mi
2419 Bevel Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,850	$1.14	19d	1	0.17mi
1419 Plank Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	23d	1	0.19mi
1256 Draintree St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1692	$2,275	$1.34	23d	1	0.21mi
1215 Draintree St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,900	$1.14	14d	1	0.21mi
2223 Tongass Bnd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	3d	1	0.22mi
1204 Draintree St Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1758	$1,975	$1.12	3d	1	0.24mi
2312 Gifford Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.29mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 188 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1620	$2,000	$1.23	3d	1	0.35mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 189 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1348	$2,100	$1.56	14d	1	0.35mi
723 Lady Diana Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1897	$2,150	$1.13	14d	1	0.35mi
5308 Rocky Hawk Run Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,150	$1.45	19d	1	0.48mi
2732 Gentle Rain Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,800	$1.32	23d	1	0.67mi
4124 River Beacon Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,500	$1.32	23d	1	0.68mi
2115 Palmer Rd Davenport, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1613	$2,395	$1.48	3d	19	0.68mi
107 Nicholson Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.69mi
211 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,150	$1.15	2d	1	0.72mi
544 Pinecrest Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,895	$1.32	3d	1	0.72mi
3676 Rolling Ridge Bnd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	19d	1	0.74mi
3445 Huntwicke Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,995	$1.31	23d	1	0.74mi
171 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,300	$1.23	3d	1	0.77mi
338 Pinecrest Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,000	$1.24	23d	1	0.78mi
3294 Partington Blvd Unit 3294 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,150	$1.29	3d	1	0.78mi
768 Majesty Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1531	$2,400	$1.57	23d	1	0.87mi
211 Aylesbury Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1402	$2,500	$1.78	23d	1	0.87mi
636 Majesty Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1446	$2,395	$1.66	14d	1	0.89mi
309 Vizcay Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,435	$1.38	14d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   price $277,990
3. 2026-01-27
   listed $276,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$9,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $277,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $276,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid