160 Tillman Ave · Ferndale, PA 15905

$44,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1900 4,791 sqft lot Est $52k · 15% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bed/1.5 bathroom located in Ferndale School District. Extras include a full basement, front and rear covered porch, and a small level backyard.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Level backyard
• Full basement

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• COVERED PORCH
• LEVEL BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story frame home; Asphalt roof; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: 40 x 120 lot; Public transportation nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Upper-level bedrooms (2 total rooms identified as bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Carpet, ceramic tile, and hardwood flooring; Full, unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($854 rent vs $44k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#649 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferndale Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #316 of 539 in PA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.58%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Midway Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,026 (-1%)	6mo	$29,900	$29	70
817 Park Ave R Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	960 (-7%)	2mo	$20,000	$21	68
394 Plainfield Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,150 (+11%)	2mo	$27,900	$24	66
108 Woodruff St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+8%)	8mo	$25,000	$22	56
1121 Boyd Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	934 (-10%)	4mo	$47,000	$50	54
245 Sell St	0.65mi	2/1.0	960 (-7%)	3mo	$57,000	$59	54
717 Glenwood Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+3%)	8mo	$35,000	$33	53
634 Russell Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	956 (-8%)	3mo	$51,000	$53	48
267 Derby St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+7%)	8mo	$97,000	$88	46
225 Sell St	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,159 (+12%)	8mo	$39,500	$34	45
545 Summit Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,187 (+15%)	3mo	$89,000	$75	43
609 Highland Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	900 (-13%)	6mo	$45,000	$50	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $13,560
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $38,563
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15905

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,212/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $443

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	44d	1	0.11mi
522 Vickroy Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1125	$850	$0.76	44d	1	0.40mi
520 Vickroy Ave Johnstown, PA	1.0	1.0	1125	$500	$0.44	44d	1	0.41mi
550 Ferndale Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	0.43mi
553 Vickroy Ave #555 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$985	$0.76	44d	1	0.45mi
619 Grove Ave Johnstown, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	44d	1	0.57mi
343 Linden Ave Unit 2 Johnstown, PA	1.0	1.0	850	$675	$0.79	44d	1	0.90mi
1201 Heeney Ave Johnstown, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	4d	1	1.01mi
906 Lemon St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$750	$0.66	44d	1	1.42mi
412 Oak St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 150-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $44,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$1,212
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$819
• − Management: −$819
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $3,427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $3,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209750
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,748
• Composite: 36.12/100
• National rank: #4750
• State rank: #316 of 539 in PA

Livability — Ferndale

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #6305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferndale, PA
• County: Cambria County · 30,791 people
• City population: 30,791
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 19,329
• Household income: $69,212
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 359.0

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.18%
• Current HPI: 142.5218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $44,000 CSMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $44,000 West Penn MLS
• 2021-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-20 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,212 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.