4301 Cele Ct · Collegedale, TN 37363

$199,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1977 9,260 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great property in a very good area , however this home will need work to be its best version. This home is an estate and is being sold as-is . Buyer and Representatives to verify all aspects of listing. Broker holds no responsibility for information forced entry. Data fields are forced and are not applicable to Estates where all owners and people with information of the home are not able to give information on the property.

Key facts

• 9,260 sq ft lot
• 50185 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features: other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage; Off-street parking; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: other; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and shingle siding exterior; Shingle roof; Block and brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Garden; Private yard; Rain gutters; Storage; Patio (covered); Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Finished basement; Wood burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $920 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.1% in Collegedale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#100 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Ooltewah Middle School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #194 of 333 statewide, top 59%, 519 students, 0% FRL); Ooltewah High School (math 9% / reading 39%, grade F, #144 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 1,266 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 733 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $200k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.15%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,219,968
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3593 Prospect Church Rd Lot 4	0.69mi	4/3.0	3,100 (+10%)	10mo	$1,337,701	$432	43
3601 Prospect Church Rd Lot 3	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,014 (+7%)	15mo	$838,803	$278	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,641
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $57,716
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37363

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 733
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,494/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $977	+0% $920	+5% $864	+10% $807
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $804	+0% $920	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,153
Rate	-1.0pp $1,021	-0.5pp $971	base $920	+0.5pp $868	+1.0pp $816

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11056 Valmont Ln Apison, TN	4.0	3.0	2053	$2,450	$1.19	14d	1	0.96mi
3729 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	5.0	3.5	2618	$3,000	$1.15	14d	1	1.28mi
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	14d	1	1.28mi
10811 Upland Dr Apison, TN	5.0	4.5	3411	$3,400	$1.00	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 427-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $199,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,494 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,494 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,494
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,827
• − Management: −$2,827
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $8,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $9,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Collegedale

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #10469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Collegedale, TN
• County: Hamilton County · 312,777 people
• City population: 131,999
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,093
• Household income: $97,399
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.23%
• Current HPI: 247.6005
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+164.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,900 GCAR
• 2000-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $115,500 Public Records
• 2000-04-10 Listed $118,900 RCAOR
• 1993-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,494 · +32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.