426 Watkins St · Covington, KY 41011

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1900 2,178 sqft lot Est $275k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bank Owned Property. Sold As is.

Key facts

• 2 kitchens
• 3 story duplex
• 2 living rooms

Tags

• 3 STORY DUPLEX
• 2 KITCHENS
• 2 LIVING ROOMS
• 2 HVAC SYSTEMS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Duplex; Multi-family property; Three or more levels; Built in 1900
• Construction: Shingle roof; Poured concrete and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Has a view; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Partial basement; In-unit laundry; Washer and dryer (stacked option listed)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/Dryer stacked

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,708/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1488% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $270k implies a 1699% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.38%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1507 Morton Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,856 (-2%)	4mo	$201,700	$109	75
812 Main St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (+4%)	1mo	$241,000	$122	69
945 Philadelphia St	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+14%)	2mo	$80,000	$37	65
1326 Banklick	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-10%)	6mo	$158,000	$92	63
16 E 18th St	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (-1%)	1mo	$384,450	$205	57
1735 Russell St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-7%)	6mo	$214,200	$121	55
302 W 7th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,052 (+8%)	6mo	$320,000	$156	54
262 W 7th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,052 (+8%)	6mo	$320,000	$156	54
1103 Mount Allen Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-5%)	1mo	$300,000	$167	53
1210 Greenup St	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,994 (+5%)	6mo	$280,000	$140	50
240 E Robbins St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-5%)	6mo	$286,000	$159	48
1718 Woodburn Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-11%)	3mo	$244,000	$145	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-14,137
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $14,975
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $680	-5% $604	+0% $528	+5% $451	+10% $375
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $421	+0% $528	+5% $635	+10% $742
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $596	base $528	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Lee St Unit 3 Covington, KY	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,000	$1.62	24d	1	0.04mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	21d	1	0.85mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	5d	1	1.01mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,295	$2.41	2d	3	1.38mi
140 W 13th St Newport, KY	3.0	3.5	2505	$4,200	$1.68	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    listed $269,900 Active
14. 2008-04-15
    soldstatus $15,000 32-char remark

    Show marketing remark (32 chars)

    Bank Owned Property. Sold As is.

15. 2007-08-21
    listed $19,900 32-char remark

    Show marketing remark (32 chars)

    Bank Owned Property. Sold As is.

16. 2007-06-30
    historical
17. 2006-07-17
    listed $49,900
18. 2000-12-20
    soldstatus $25,000
19. 2000-12-19
    soldstatus $25,000
20. 2000-11-01
    listed $29,900
21. 2000-06-09
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,316/yr (+$110/mo · 131.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,600
• − Management: −$2,600
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $1,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$473
• After-tax cash flow: $5,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+979.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $269,900 NKMLS
• 2008-04-15 Sold (MLS) $15,000 NKMLS
• 2007-08-21 Listed $19,900 NKMLS
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2006-07-17 Listed $49,900 NKMLS
• 2000-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-19 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NKMLS
• 2000-11-01 Listed $29,900 NKMLS
• 2000-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,005 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.