2845 E Hatch Rd #104 · Ceres, CA 95351

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 2845 E Hatch Rd #104, Modesto, CA 95351; Directions: Use GPS
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home (in park), double wide; Built in 1972
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting; WESTCHESTER make
• Exterior features: Court-front lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Great room living area; Breakfast area in kitchen; Dining and family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in kitchen; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,218/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1964% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.62%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,880
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2841 Fowler Rd #149	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	4mo	$110,000	$92	67
2845 E Hatch Rd #26	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	22mo	$95,000	$91	66
2841 Fowler Rd #33	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	55
2841 Fowler Rd #42	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+13%)	1mo	$145,000	$113	50
2841 Fowler Rd #62	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+5%)	20mo	$90,000	$75	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,896
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $67,580
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $763	-5% $709	+0% $654	+5% $599	+10% $544
Rent	-10% $478	-5% $566	+0% $654	+5% $741	+10% $829
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $694	base $654	+0.5pp $612	+1.0pp $570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	21d	1	0.14mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	44d	1	0.41mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	14d	1	0.74mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	24d	1	0.85mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.96mi
2250 5th St Unit 11 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	24d	1	1.14mi
1749 Richland Ave Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	815	$1,745	$2.14	6d	1	1.44mi
1301 Richland Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,738	$1.91	14d	10	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $159,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $5,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $6,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It is ready for a new owner or renter and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Rental Installing a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can help reduce energy costs and attract eco-conscious renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental Installing a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can help reduce energy costs and attract eco-conscious renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B